MMA

UFC 282: Jared Gordon vs Paddy Pimblett Picks, Predictions, Odds

Paddy Pimblett vs Jared Gordon
December 10, 2022 11:25 pm EDT
The Line: Jared Gordon +217 / Paddy Pimblett -257
(Get latest betting odds)

Paddy Pimblett and Jared Gordon fight Saturday in UFC 282 at the T-Mobile Arena. Pimblett enters this fight with a 19-3 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by submission. Gordon enters this fight with a 19-5 record and has won 58 percent of his fights by decision.

Pimblett has won each of his last 5 fights and is coming off a July win over Jordan Leavitt. Pimblett is averaging 4.19 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Pimblett is averaging 1.88 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Pimblett is coming off a submission win at UFC Fight Night 208 that earned performance of the night honors. He’s earned the bonus in each of his last 3 bouts. In the victory, Pimblett landed 30 total strikes and produced a takedown. Pimblett is now 3-0 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost overall since September 2018. An intriguing fighter at almost 28 years old, Pimblett is a black belt in BJJ and has 9 career submission victories. Pimblett is aggressive with his takedowns and wears on his opponent in the clinch. Pimblett also has an underrated striking game, and his chin is top quality. Pimblett has never been knocked out in his career. Pimblett is quickly becoming a star and has a chance to eventually push for a title shot. This will be Pimblett’s second career fight in Nevada.

Gordon has won 4 of his last 5 fights and is coming off an August win over Leonardo Santos. Gordon is averaging 5.33 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 58 percent. Gordon is averaging 1.97 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 39 percent. Gordon is coming off a decision win at UFC 278 where he landed 203 total strikes. Gordon is now 7-4 under the UFC banner and has won all 11 of his career decisions. A brown belt in BJJ, Gordon is an accurate striker with knockout pop that’s produced 6 career knockouts. Gordon has some takedown ability and has 2 career wins via the rear-naked choke. Gordon has been knocked out in 4 of his 5 career losses. At 34 years old, this feels like Gordon’s make or break fight opportunity to take that next step in his career. This will be Gordon’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

Gordon has the wrestling and ground control to make this a competitive bout, but he lacks the finish ability to really put a scare into Pimblett. This feels like a bout where Pimblett will figure things out in the later rounds and find an opening where he can put the fight away. Pimblett is just too active and has a much higher finish rate to where he’s the more trustworthy guy in this situation.

Give me Pimblett by finish.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Paddy Pimblett By Finish

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA and is more than familiar with what it takes to navigate a 150 game college basketball Saturday and a 162 game MLB schedule. Randy has done it all. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter or catch him on the PickDawgz YouTube channel.

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