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Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction 6-17-24 Picks

Dallas Mavericks (63-40) vs. Boston Celtics (79-21)
June 17, 2024 8:30 pm EDT
The Line: Boston Celtics -6.5; Over/Under: 209.5
(Get latest betting odds)

The Dallas Mavericks and Boston Celtics meet Monday in Game 5 of the NBA Finals at the TD Garden. Here’s a Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview

The Dallas Mavericks need a win to save their season and force a game 6 on Thursday. The Mavs are 7-4 SU on the road in these NBA playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 106.8 points on 46.9 percent shooting and allowing 103.2 points on 44.4 percent shooting. Luka Doncic is averaging 28.9 points and 8.2 assists, while Kyrie Irving is averaging 22.5 points and 3.7 rebounds. PJ Washington is the third double-digit scorer and Daniel Gafford is grabbing 5.7 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 36.3 percent from beyond the arc and 72.4 percent from the free throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 35.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 43.5 rebounds per game.

Boston Celtics Betting Preview

The Boston Celtics can win their first title since the 2007-08 season and their 18th title in franchise history. The Celtics are 8-2 SU at home in these NBA playoffs. The Boston Celtics are averaging 108.9 points on 47.1 percent shooting and allowing 101.4 points on 46.5 percent shooting. Jayson Tatum is averaging 24.7 points and 9.8 rebounds, while Jaylen Brown is averaging 24.1 points and 5.8 rebounds. Derrick White is the third double-digit scorer and Jrue Holiday is grabbing 5.8 rebounds. The Boston Celtics are shooting 36.1 percent from beyond the arc and 81 percent from the free throw line. The Boston Celtics are allowing 33.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 42.6 rebounds per game.

Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Injury Report

The Mavericks will continue to be without Greg Brown III, who hasn’t played since January 7. Kristaps Porzingis is questionable for the Boston Celtics due to a leg injury. Porzingis missed game 3, and while he was cleared to play in game 4, he didn’t play. Porzingis has played 44 minutes in this series and hasn’t played since June 9.

Why the Dallas Mavericks will win

  • The Mavericks have won six of their last eight games as underdogs.
  • The Celtics have lost three of their last four playoff games as home favorites following a loss.
  • The Celtics have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five NBA Finals games as favorites.
  • The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last four road games against the Celtics following a home win.

Boston Celtics Player Facts

  • Al Horford ranks 1st amongst qualified Centers for 3P% (41.9%) this season.
  • Jaylen Brown ranks T3rd in the league for fast break points (310) this season.

Dallas Mavericks Player Facts

  • Daniel Gafford ranks 1st amongst qualified players for FG% (72.5%) this season.
  • P.J. Washington is one of only three players to have scored 40+ points off the bench in a game this season.

Matchup/League Facts

  • The Celtics rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+11.3).
  • The Celtics rank T1st in the league for blocks per game this season (6.6).
  • The Mavericks rank 2nd in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (4.0).
  • The Mavericks rank 2nd in the league for three-point field goal attempts per game this season (39.5).

Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Prediction

I honestly have no idea what’s going to happen in game 5. I thought the Mavs would be competitive in this series and even picked them to win, and they’ve only shown up once through 4 games. Was game 4 just a blip on the radar? Did the Mavs figure something out? Who knows. What I do know is if Luka and Kyrie play to their abilities, and they get some sort of production from the others, they can get back in this series and make things interesting. The problem is it’s only happened once through 4 games. The Celtics are 45-6 SU at home and should be favored.

I’m still grabbing the points with the Mavs because I don’t have a great feel for either side and I feel safer with free buckets in my back pocket.

Randy Chambers's Free Pick: Dallas Mavericks +6.5

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Randy Chambers

Randy has covered sports betting since 2014 and writes about everything from NFL to WNBA. Follow Randy Chambers on Twitter.

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