Miami Heat (45-39) vs. Milwaukee Bucks (58-24)
April 16, 2023 5:30 pm EDT
The Line: Milwaukee Bucks -9; Over/Under: +219.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Miami Heat and Milwaukee Bucks meet Sunday in Game 1 of the NBA East First Round Playoffs at the Fiserv Forum. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.
The Miami Heat are averaging 109.5 points on 46 percent shooting and allowing 109.8 points on 48.2 percent shooting. Jimmy Butler is averaging 22.9 points and 5.9 rebounds, while Bam Adebayo is averaging 20.6 points and 9.3 rebounds. Tyler Herro is the third double-digit scorer and Max Strus is grabbing 3.3 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 34.4 percent from beyond the arc and 83.1 percent from the free throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 36.7 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 40.6 rebounds per game.
The Milwaukee Bucks are averaging 116.9 points on 47.3 percent shooting and allowing 113.3 points on 45.6 percent shooting. Giannis Antetokounmpo is averaging 31.1 points and 11.8 rebounds, while Jrue Holiday is averaging 19.3 points and 5.1 rebounds. Brook Lopez is the third double-digit scorer and Khris Middleton is grabbing 4.2 rebounds. The Milwaukee Bucks are shooting 36.8 percent from beyond the arc and 74.3 percent from the free throw line. The Milwaukee Bucks are allowing 35.4 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 48.6 rebounds per game.
The Heat are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games playing on 1 days rest. The Bucks are 15-6 ATS in their last 21 games following a ATS loss and 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 Conference Quarterfinals games. The over is 5-0 in Heat last 5 overall. The over is 6-2 in Bucks last 8 overall. The Heat are 1-4 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Milwaukee.
There’s a lot of history between the Bucks and Heat in the playoffs, so there won’t be many surprises from either side. They know each other well. And while the Bucks are the more talented team, the Heat is a scrappy bunch that loses on the road by an average of just 1.8 points. Also, the Bucks are 12-15 ATS when favorites of 7.5 or more points. This has a chance to be an ugly, physical series. Give me the points.
