Bucks vs Thunder Prediction 3/16/25 NBA Picks Today

The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Milwaukee Bucks duke it out at the Fiserv Forum on Sunday night. Here’s a Bucks vs Thunder Prediction. This article will include a Bucks vs Thunder Pick.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have been on fire as they’ve won nine of their last 10 games overall and they will be eager to stay hot after outlasting the Pistons in a 113-107 road win last night. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 48 points and six assists on 17 of 26 shooting, Cason Wallace added 20 points while Isaiah Hartenstein chipped in with 12 points, 10 rebounds, five assists and three blocks. As a team, the Thunder shot 48 percent from the field and just 10 of 34 from the 3-point line as they battled with the Pistons in a closely contested first half. Before they caught fire with 36 points in the third quarter to lead by as many as 16 points. The Thunder committed 18 turnovers, they shot poorly from the 3-point line and they made just 17 assists, but this game was another example of how Gilgeous-Alexander can carry the offense and drag his team over the line.

Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Bucks have been in great form as they’ve won 10 of their last 14 games overall and they will be aiming for a third straight victory after taking down the Pacers in a 126-119 home win last night. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the team with 34 points, 10 rebounds, seven assists and three blocks on 14 of 19 shooting, Damian Lillard added 25 points with 10 rebounds and eight assists while Taurean Prince chipped in with 14 points and five steals. As a team, the Bucks shot 54 percent from the field and 15 of 37 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 38 points in the first quarter to take the early lead. Before they dominated the third quarter by 35-22 to push the margin out to 21 points, which was just enough to hold off the Pacers who cut the lead to just three points with 12.1 seconds remaining.

Why the Milwaukee Bucks will win

• The Thunder have lost each of their last seven road games with both teams on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Bucks have won 23 of their last 25 home games against opponents who are on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as favorites on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Bucks have covered the spread in each of their last four games against Western Conference opponents that held a winning record.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last 12 games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Bucks have lost nine of their last 10 games as underdogs against Northwest Division opponents following a win.
• The Bucks have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as underdogs on the second leg of a back-to-back.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in eight of their last nine games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.

Matchup/League Facts

• The Bucks rank 30th in the league for offensive rebounds per game this season (8.5).
• The Bucks rank 2nd in the league for opponent blocks per game this season (4.0).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for point differential per game this season (+12.5).
• The Thunder rank 1st in the league for steals per game this season (10.6).

The Thunder will likely be without Luguentz Dort, Jalen Williams and Aaron Wiggins, while the Bucks don’t have a single player listed on the injury report. Both teams are playing this one on zero days’ rest, so don’t be shocked if either team decides to rest a player just before tipoff. With that being said, the Bucks didn’t have to travel last night and they have a full squad. However, the Thunder will receive a bit of a boost with Chet Holmgren returning to the lineup after being rested last night. You can make an argument for either side here, but assuming that the Thunder don’t decide to rest Gilgeous-Alexander, I am leaning with the Thunder, who are just too tempting at the short line in their current form.

Peter Tran's Free Pick: Oklahoma City -3.5

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