Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction 5-11-24 Picks

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Dallas Mavericks meet Saturday in Game 3 West Second Round NBA Playoffs action at the American Airlines Center. Here’s a Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder look for their third road playoff win to take a 2-1 series lead. OKC is 2-0 SU on the road in these playoffs. The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 108 points on 47.4 percent shooting and allowing 95.3 points on 40.8 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 28.5 points and 6.2 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 20.5 points and 6.3 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer and Josh Giddey is grabbing 4.5 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 39.1 percent from beyond the arc and 77.4 percent from the free throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 32 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.2 rebounds per game.

Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview

The Dallas Mavericks have won 3 of their last 4 playoff games and hope to take a 2-1 series lead. The Cavs are 2-1 SU at home in these playoffs. The Dallas Mavericks are averaging 107 points on 45.6 percent shooting and allowing 103.6 points on 44.1 percent shooting. Luka Doncic is averaging 28.4 points and 9.1 assists, while Kyrie Irving is averaging 23.5 points and 4.8 rebounds. PJ Washington is the third double-digit scorer and Derrick Jones Jr. is grabbing 4.1 rebounds. The Dallas Mavericks are shooting 35.6 percent from beyond the arc and 71.8 percent from the free throw line. The Dallas Mavericks are allowing 38 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 42.1 rebounds per game.

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Injury Report

The Dallas Mavericks will be without Olivier-Maxence Prosper, Maxi Kleber and Greg Brown III. Luka Doncic is listed as questionable with a knee injury. Luka has been dealing with a knee injury all playoffs, but he’s still racked up 337 postseason minutes, so I’d expect him to continue to push through. The Oklahoma City Thunder don’t have a single player on their injury report, making them the healthiest team in the NBA playoffs.

Why the Dallas Mavericks will win

• The Mavericks have won each of their last six home games against Northwest Division opponents.
• The Thunder have lost each of their last six road games following a home loss.
• The Mavericks have covered the spread in each of their last six home games against Northwest Division opponents.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games as road underdogs.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won each of their last six games against Western Conference opponents following a loss.
• The Mavericks have lost six of their last nine games as home favorites after winning as underdogs.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last six playoff road games against the Mavericks.
• The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight home games after winning as underdogs.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the last five games between the Thunder and Mavericks at American Airlines Center have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Thunder’s last five games at American Airlines Center have gone OVER the total points line.

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction

The Thunder and points are attractive when you consider they’ve lost just once in these playoffs and have been the best defensive team in terms of points allowed per game. OKC has also won and covered 7 of the last 10 games against the Mavericks. The Thunder have covered 8 of their last 10 games overall. As it’s been from the start, this game and series comes down to how effective Luka can be despite a knee injury. Luka had moments in the Mavs game 2 win, but he’s shooting just 40.9 percent from the field and 26.5 percent from 3 in these playoffs. We’ll find out early which version of Luka we’re going to get.

Regardless, role players play better at home and maybe that’s the difference to push the Mavs to a crucial game 3 win and a lead in this series. I’ll lay the bucket with the Mavericks on early Saturday.