Dallas Mavericks (12-19) vs. Golden State Warriors (15-15)
December 25, 2025 5:00 pm EDT
The Line: Golden State Warriors -7.5; Over/Under: 228.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Golden State Warriors play host to the Dallas Mavericks at the Chase Center on Christmas Day. Here’s a Warriors vs Mavericks Prediction. This article will include a Warriors vs Mavericks Pick.
Dallas Mavericks Betting Preview
The Dallas Mavericks have been in decent form lately as they’ve split their last eight games overall and they will be eager to build some momentum after outlasting the Nuggets in a 131-130 win on Tuesday. Cooper Flagg led the team with 33 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, Anthony Davis added 31 points with nine rebounds and four assists while Naji Marshall chipped in with 15 points. As a team, the Mavericks shot 57 percent from the field and 11 of 27 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 41 points in the first quarter to lead by as many as 21 points. However, they allowed the Nuggets back into the contest and needed a crucial 10-4 run late in the fourth quarter to escape with the gritty win in front of their home fans.
Golden State Warriors Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors have been in decent form, as they’ve won four of their last seven games overall. They will be aiming for a third straight victory after blowing past the Magic in a 120-97 home win on Monday. Stephen Curry led the team with 26 points and six assists on 10 of 23 shooting, Jimmy Butler III added 21 points on seven of nine shooting, while Moses Moody chipped in with 20 points on eight of 11 shooting. As a team, the Warriors shot 52 percent from the field and 11 of 37 from the 3-point line as they got off to a solid start and took the early lead. However, it was a real close contest all the way until the fourth quarter, where they held the Magic to just 14 points to pull away and earn the much-needed blowout win at home to improve to 15-15 on the season.
Why the Golden State Warriors will win
- The home team has won each of the Mavericks’ last nine games.
- The Mavericks have lost each of their last eight road games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
- The home team has covered the spread in each of the Mavericks’ last nine games.
- The Mavericks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven day games against Pacific Division opponents.
Why the Dallas Mavericks will win
- The underdogs have won four of the Mavericks’ last five games.
- The Warriors have lost three of their last four Christmas Day games as favorites.
- The Warriors have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven games against Western Conference opponents.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in four of the Mavericks’ last five games.
Total Points Facts
- Seven of the Warriors’ last eight day games against Southwest Division opponents have gone UNDER the total points line.
- Five of the Mavericks’ last six games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Golden State Warriors Player Facts
- Stephen Curry ranks 1st amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per game (4.9) this season.
- Draymond Green is one of only nine qualified players in the league to be leading their team in rebounds (6.1) and assists (5.1) per game this season.
Dallas Mavericks Player Facts
- Naji Marshall is one of only eight players to have scored 30+ points off the bench in a game this season.
- Ryan Nembhard is one of only nine players in the league to have recorded 10+ assists without a turnover in a game this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Warriors rank 1st in the league for three-point field goals made per game this season (15.9).
- The Warriors rank 30th in the league for Q1 points per game this season (26.6).
- The Mavericks rank 1st in the league for opponent three-point percentage this season (33.1%).
- The Mavericks rank 1st in the league for opponent three-point field goals made per game this season (11.4).
Warriors vs Mavericks Prediction
The Mavericks are still missing Kyrie Irving, Dereck Lively II and Max Christie with PJ Washington listed as questionable, while the Warriors are missing Al Horford and Seth Curry again. The Mavericks have been playing well, and they looked great in their win over the red-hot Nuggets on Tuesday, but the Warriors are also starting to heat up also so we could be in for a close one. I think the Warriors get a much-needed win at home in this one, but the line is a bit generous, and I think the Mavericks can at least keep this one close at the end.
