Hawks vs Heat Prediction 12/26/25 NBA Picks Today

The Miami Heat and Atlanta Hawks meet Friday in NBA action at the State Farm Arena. Here’s a Hawks vs Heat Prediction. This article will include a Hawks vs Heat Pick.

Miami Heat Betting Preview

The Miami Heat lost to the Knicks and Raptors, and they play the Pacers next. The Heat have lost 8 of their last 9 games.

The Miami Heat are averaging 119.2 points on 47 percent shooting and allowing 117.6 points on 45.2 percent shooting. Norman Powell is averaging 23.7 points and 3.9 rebounds, while Tyler Herro is averaging 23.2 points and 2.3 assists. Bam Adebayo is the third double-digit scorer, and Jaime Jaquez Jr. is grabbing 5.5 rebounds. The Miami Heat are shooting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc and 78.2 percent from the free-throw line. The Miami Heat are allowing 34.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 45.4 rebounds per game.

Atlanta Hawks Betting Preview

The Atlanta Hawks lost to the Bulls and Spurs, and they play the Knicks next. The Hawks have lost 8 of their last 10 games.

The Atlanta Hawks are averaging 118.8 points on 48.3 percent shooting and allowing 119.6 points on 47.9 percent shooting. Jalen Johnson is averaging 23.8 points and 10.5 rebounds, while Nickeil Alexander-Walker is averaging 20.3 points and 3.5 rebounds. Trae Young is the third double-digit scorer, and Kristaps Porzingis is grabbing 5.6 rebounds. The Atlanta Hawks are shooting 6.9 percent from beyond the arc and 78.6 percent from the free-throw line. The Atlanta Hawks are allowing 36.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 41.8 rebounds per game.

Why the Atlanta Hawks will win

• The Heat have lost eight of their last nine games.
• The Hawks have won five of their last six home games against Southeast Division opponents.
• The Hawks have covered the spread in each of their last eight games on the first leg of a back-to-back after losing as favorites.
• The Heat have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven games.

Why the Miami Heat will win

• The Hawks have lost each of their last four games as home favorites after losing as favorites.
• The Heat have won 10 of their last 11 night games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a losing record.
• The Hawks have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games as home favorites.
• The Heat have covered the spread in eight of their last nine night games against Southeast Division opponents.

Total Points Facts

• Seven of the Hawks’ last eight games as favorites against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the Heat’s last seven games against opponents who are on the first leg of a back-to-back have gone OVER the total points line.

Hawks vs Heat Injury Report

The Hawks will be without Kristaps Porzingis, Eli John Ndiaye, and N’Faly Dante. Mouhamed Gueye is questionable.

The Heat will be without Terry Rozier and Tyler Herro. Bam Adebayo and Keshad Johnson are questionable.

Hawks vs Heat Prediction

The Heat have returned to the team they were last season, where scoring 100 points is like pulling teeth. However, I’m not sure what the Hawks have done to deserve to be favored, as they’ve lost 8 of their last 10 games and are 3-6-1 ATS during that stretch.

The Heat are at least getting healthier and have won 6 of the last 9 games against the Hawks. The Hawks are 5-9 SU at home this season. This is a game the Heat could easily win if they simply play to their potential. I’ll grab the points, as the Hawks as favorites in their current form is nuts.