Indiana Pacers (6-25) vs. Miami Heat (16-15)
December 27, 2025 8:00 pm EDT
The Line: Miami Heat -8.5; Over/Under: 230.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Indiana Pacers and the Miami Heat duke it out at the Kaseya Center on Saturday night. Here’s a Heat vs Pacers Prediction. This article will include a Heat vs Pacers Pick.
Indiana Pacers Betting Preview
The Indiana Pacers have been in a real slump as they’ve lost nine of their last 11 games overall and they will be hoping to arrest a seven-game slide after getting trampled by the Celtics in a 140-122 loss last night. Andrew Nembhard led the team with 18 points and eight assists, TJ McConnell and Bennedict Mathurin each scored 13 points, while Pascal Siakam chipped in with 11 points. As a team, the Pacers shot 49 percent from the field and 18 of 44 from the 3-point line as they jumped out of the gates with 39 points in the first quarter to take an early 15-point lead. However, it didn’t last long at all as the Pacers allowed 47 points in the second quarter to fall behind by 14 points at halftime. The Pacers trailed in this one by as many as 28 points before they finished with a flurry to keep the final margin somewhat respectable.
Miami Heat Betting Preview
Meanwhile, the Miami Heat have been in a real slump, as they’ve lost eight of their last 10 games overall. But they will be feeling much better after they arrested a three-game slide with a 126-111 road win over the Hawks last night. Norman Powell led the team with 25 points, seven rebounds, and five assists on nine of 16 shooting. Andrew Wiggins added 18 points with eight rebounds on nine of 17 shooting, while Pelle Larsson tallied 21 points with six rebounds and five assists on nine of 13 shooting. As a team, the Heat shot 47 percent from the field and 11 of 36 from the 3-point line as they played great defense to hold the Hawks to just 19 points in the second quarter to take a 12-point lead. However, they didn’t have full control of the game until the fourth quarter, where they poured in 36 points to come away with the much-needed win on the road.
Why the Miami Heat will win
- The Pacers have lost each of their last 14 games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Heat have won each of their last six games against Eastern Conference opponents that held a losing record.
- The Heat have covered the spread in seven of their last eight games against Eastern Conference opponents after winning as underdogs.
- The Pacers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last seven Saturday road games.
Why the Indiana Pacers will win
- The Heat have lost 10 of their last 11 games as favorites against Central Division opponents.
- The underdogs have won four of the Heat’s last five games at Kaseya Center.
- The Heat have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 17 games as favorites against Central Division opponents following a win.
- The underdogs have covered the spread in 10 of the Pacers’ last 11 games at Kaseya Center.
Total Points Facts
- Each of the Pacers’ last nine games at Kaseya Center following a home loss have gone OVER the total points line.
- Each of the last eight games between the Pacers and Heat have gone OVER the total points line.
Heat vs Pacers Prediction
The Pacers are still missing Ben Sheppard, Aaron Nesmith, Isaiah Jackson and Tyrese Haliburton, while the Heat will be without Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro once again. The Pacers have been in terrible form, and they will be low on confidence after last night’s blowout defeat to the Celtics, and the Heat really haven’t been much better despite winning their last game. You couldn’t trust either side with too much confidence, but the Pacers are on a 14-game losing streak against teams with winning records. I think that trend continues here, with the Heat coming away with the win and cover at home.
