Phoenix Suns (49-34) vs. Minnesota Timberwolves (57-26)
April 23, 2024 7:30 pm EDT
The Line: Minnesota Timberwolves -3; Over/Under: 212
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The Phoenix Suns and Minnesota Timberwolves meet Tuesday in Game 2 West NBA Playoffs action at the Target Center. Here’s a Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves prediction.
Phoenix Suns Lack Scoring Depth
The Phoenix Suns need a win to even up the series before game 3 on Friday. The Phoenix Suns are averaging 95 points on 44 percent shooting and allowing 120 points on 50 percent shooting. Kevin Durant is averaging 31 points and 1 assist, while Devin Booker is averaging 18 points and 2 rebounds. Bradley Beal is the third double-digit scorer and Royce O’Neale is grabbing 4 rebounds. The Phoenix Suns are shooting 32.1 percent from beyond the arc and 80 percent from the free throw line. The Phoenix Suns are allowing 37.5 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 28 rebounds per game.
Minnesota Timberwolves Defense Remains Elite
The Minnesota Timberwolves look to take a quick 2-0 series lead and become massive favorites to advance. The Minnesota Timberwolves are averaging 120 points on 50 percent shooting and allowing 95 points on 44 percent shooting. Anthony Edwards is averaging 33 points and 9 rebounds, while Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging 19 points and 4 assists. Nickeil Alexander-Walker is the third double-digit scorer and Rudy Gobert is grabbing 16 rebounds. The Minnesota Timberwolves are shooting 37.5 percent from beyond the arc and 90.9 percent from the free throw line. The Minnesota Timberwolves are allowing 32.1 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 52 rebounds per game.
Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves Injuries
Damion Lee remains out for the Suns due to a knee injury, while Grayson Allen is listed as questionable with an ankle injury. I expect Allen to play, considering he played 25 minutes in game 1 and didn’t look hobbled. Jaylen Clark is out for the Timberwolves with an Achilles issue and hasn’t played since November. Kyle Anderson is questionable with a hip issue and played less than 5 minutes in game 1. If Anderson can’t go, it could mean more playing time for T.J. Warren and Luke Garza. However, reports indicate Anderson was able to practice on Monday.
Minnesota Timberwolves Team Facts
- The Timberwolves have lost 11 of their last 12 playoff games following a win.
- The Timberwolves have failed to cover the spread in each of their last four games following a win.
- Each of the Timberwolves’ last six home games against Western Conference opponents have gone OVER the total points line.
Phoenix Suns Team Facts
- The Suns have won each of their last four games as road underdogs following a loss.
- The Suns have covered the spread in each of their last eight night games against the Timberwolves.
- Each of the Suns’ last five games at Target Center have gone OVER the total points line.
Minnesota Timberwolves Player Facts
- Rudy Gobert ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for rebounds per game (12.9) this season.
- Mike Conley ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for 3P% (44.2%) this season.
Phoenix Suns Player Facts
- Kevin Durant ranks 5th amongst qualified players for points per game (27.1) this season.
- Devin Booker ranks 6th amongst qualified players for points per game (27.1) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for opponent points per game this season (106.5).
- The Timberwolves rank 1st in the league for opponent field goal percentage this season (45.0%).
- The Suns rank 30th in the league for Q4 points per game this season (25.1).
- The Suns rank 30th in the league for Q4 win percentage this season (34.1%).
Phoenix Suns vs Minnesota Timberwolves prediction
The Suns and the free bucket is intriguing when you consider they’ve won 8 of the last 10 games against the Timberwolves and have covered 9 of those games. However, while I don’t want to overreact to one game, the Timberwolves were convincingly the better team in game 1 and the size advantage is massive. Throwing out Towns, Gobert and Naz Reid is doing a number to the Suns front court and provides a massive rebounding advantage.
Most Suns offensive possessions were one and done, and it’s just tough to sustain high level offensive production in that situation. It also doesn’t help that Allen is now dealing with an ankle issue. Allen is one of the Sun’s best offensive players and led the NBA with a 46.1 percent three point percentage this season. While I do believe the Suns could still make this a series, I’m going to lay the bucket with the Timberwolves as the home team gains a 2-0 series advantage.
