Thunder vs Grizzlies Prediction 4/20/25 NBA Picks Today

The Memphis Grizzlies and Oklahoma City Thunder meet Sunday in the NBA playoffs Game 1 at the Paycom Center. Here’s a Thunder vs Grizzlies Prediction. This article will include a Thunder vs Grizzlies Pick.

Memphis Grizzlies Betting Preview

The Memphis Grizzlies are coming off a play-in win over the Mavs to make the playoffs. The Grizzlies are in the playoffs for the fourth time in the last five years.

The Memphis Grizzlies are averaging 121.7 points on 47.9 percent shooting and allowing 116.9 points on 45.6 percent shooting. Ja Morant is averaging 23.2 points and 4.1 rebounds, while Jaren Jackson Jr. is averaging 22.2 points and 2 assists. Desmond Bane is the third double-digit scorer, and Santi Aldama is grabbing 6.4 rebounds. The Memphis Grizzlies are shooting 36.7 percent from beyond the arc and 78.6 percent from the free-throw line. The Memphis Grizzlies are allowing 36 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 47.3 rebounds per game.

Oklahoma City Thunder Betting Preview

The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost just four games since February 26 and will play for the first time in a week. The Thunder are in the playoffs in back-to-back seasons and for the seventh time in the last 10 years.

The Oklahoma City Thunder are averaging 120.5 points on 48.2 percent shooting and allowing 107.6 points on 43.6 percent shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 32.7 points and 6.4 assists, while Jalen Williams is averaging 21.6 points and 5.3 rebounds. Chet Holmgren is the third double-digit scorer, and Isaiah Hartenstein is grabbing 10.7 rebounds. The Oklahoma City Thunder are shooting 37.4 percent from beyond the arc and 81.9 percent from the free-throw line. The Oklahoma City Thunder are allowing 34.2 percent shooting from deep and are grabbing 44.8 rebounds per game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won 22 of their last 23 games at Paycom Center when playing with a rest advantage.
• The Grizzlies have lost each of their last eight games when playing with a rest disadvantage.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in each of their last 11 home games against Grizzlies teams that held a winning record.
• The Grizzlies have failed to cover the spread in each of their last 10 games as underdogs against Northwest Division opponents following a win.

Why the Memphis Grizzlies will win

• The Thunder have lost each of their last two playoff games as home favorites.
• The Grizzlies have won four of their last six playoff games as road underdogs against the Thunder.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six Western Conference First Round games as home favorites against Southwest Division opponents.
• The road team has covered the spread in four of the Thunder’s last five games.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Luguentz Dort ranks 26th amongst qualified players for 3P% (41.2%) this season.
• Isaiah Hartenstein has recorded the most three-point field goal attempts without a make (19) of any player in the league this season.

Memphis Grizzlies Player Facts

• Jaren Jackson Jr. is one of only three qualified players in the league averaging at least 1.0 threes, 1.0 steals and 1.0 blocks this season.
• Scotty Pippen Jr. ranks 6th amongst qualified players for steals per 36 minutes (2.2) this season.

Thunder vs Grizzlies Injury Report

The Thunder will be without Ousmane Dieng and Nikola Topic. Jalen Williams and Jaylin Williams are questionable.

The Memphis Grizzlies will be without Brandon Clarke, Jaylen Wells, and Zyon Pullin.

Thunder vs Grizzlies Prediction

The Thunder are going to be massive favorites for obvious reasons. They’re at home, they’re the best team in the NBA, they have the rest advantage, and they were 55-24-4 ATS on the season, which is insane. The Thunder are also 9-1 SU and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 games against the Grizzlies. The Grizzlies haven’t beat the Thunder since December 2022. In the four games this season, the Thunder won by an average of 18.75 points. The Grizzlies had to work hard just to get to this point and are dealing with a banged up Morant. I get it.

However, this is double-digit chalk in an NBA playoff game, something you don’t often see. You’d have to go back to 2016 the last time the Thunder were a double-digit favorite in a playoff game. The Grizzlies have been a double-digit underdog in the playoffs just once since 2018. I know the Thunder have owned this series the last few years and are the safest bet in the NBA. I just can’t leave this many points on the table in a playoff game.