Thunder vs Pacers Prediction 6/16/25 NBA Picks Today

The Oklahoma City Thunder had all the pressure on them to square up the series in Game 4, and they did just that with a gritty 111-104 road win over the Pacers on Friday. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander led the team with 35 points on 12 of 24 shooting. Jalen Williams added 27 points with seven rebounds and three assists, Alex Caruso added 20 points and five steals off the bench, while Chet Holmgren chipped in with 14 points, 15 rebounds, and one block in 37 minutes as a starter.

As a team, the Thunder shot 47 percent from the field and a miserable three of 16 from the 3-point line as they struggled for most of the contest. They looked to be in trouble when they trailed by 10 points late in the third quarter. However, the fourth quarter was a completely different story as the Thunder played excellent defense to hold the Pacers to just 17 points and on the other side of the court it was SGA who delivered with 15 points in the final 4:38.

Indiana Pacers Betting Preview

Meanwhile, the Indiana Pacers will be kicking themselves, as they were just one quarter away from taking a commanding 3-1 series lead in the NBA Finals. Pascal Siakam led the team in scoring with 29 points, eight rebounds, five assists and five steals, Tyrese Haliburton added 18 points with seven assists while Obi Toppin chipped in with 17 points and seven rebounds off the bench.

As a team, the Pacers shot 42 percent from the field and 11 of 36 from the 3-point line as they set the tone with 35 points in the first quarter. They were able to keep the Thunder quiet from the perimeter to stay in front until it all fell down in the fourth quarter. The Pacers were able to get the win in Game 3 behind the strength of their role players, but Bennedict Mathurin, Aaron Nesmith and TJ McConnell scored just eight points apiece in this contest. They needed more help from Haliburton who finished with five turnovers for the game.

Why the Oklahoma City Thunder will win

• The Thunder have won 14 of their last 15 home games against Eastern Conference opponents.
• The Pacers have lost Game 5 in eight of their last nine playoff series’ when tied 2-2.
• The Thunder have covered the spread in nine of their last 10 games at Paycom Center against Eastern Conference opponents that held a winning record.
• The Pacers have failed to cover the spread in six of their last seven road games against Northwest Division opponents following a loss.

Why the Indiana Pacers will win

• The Pacers have won each of their last 10 games following a loss.
• The Thunder have lost each of their last three playoff games as favorites against Eastern Conference opponents following a win.
• The Pacers have covered the spread in each of their last seven playoff games following a loss.
• The Thunder have failed to cover the spread in each of their last three NBA Finals games following a win.

Oklahoma City Thunder Player Facts

• Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ranks 1st amongst qualified players for points per game (32.7) this season.
• Cason Wallace ranks 3rd amongst qualified players for steals per game (1.8) this season.

Indiana Pacers Player Facts

• Tyrese Haliburton ranks 1st amongst qualified players for assist:turnover ratio (5.6) this season.
• Myles Turner ranks 1st in the Eastern Conference amongst qualified players for Blocks Per Game (2.0) this season.

Thunder vs Pacers Prediction

Looking at the betting trends, the Pacers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games and 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games overall. The Thunder are 7-1 SU in its last eight games at home and 14-6 SU in its last 20 games overall.

The Thunder needed to absolutely win in Game 4 to give themselves a chance in this series, and it wasn’t surprising to see them get the job done, as they’ve been terrific in these playoffs after dropping a game. The series now shifts back to the Paycom Center, with the Pacers as heavy underdogs again, but I just don’t see the Thunder having an easy time in this one.

Sure, I like the Thunder to get the win at home, as they were good enough to get the job done in Game 4 despite shooting just three of 16 from the 3-point line. However, I think the Pacers respond and keep this one close at the very least.

Peter Tran's Free Pick: Indiana +9.5