New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins – 9/13/20 NFL Pick, Odds, and Prediction

The Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots meet Sunday in week 1 NFL action at Gillette Stadium as the NFL season begins.

The Miami Dolphins were a bit of a surprise team last year that won five games, and that includes wins in five of their last 10 tries. The Dolphins patched up their offensive line a bit and will eventually had the keys of the franchise to Tua Tagovailoa, but the quarterback job likely goes to Ryan Fitzpatrick for now. Wide receiver DeVante Parker is finally starting to blossom into the guy many expected he’d be and Preston Williams is one of the more underrated receivers in the league. The Dolphins have the ability to turn some heads on offense this season. Defensively, the Dolphins have possibly the best secondary in the league with Xavien Howard, Eric iteme, Bobby McCain and the newly signed Byron Jones. The Dolphins need to find a consistent pass rush, and I’ll be looking at players like Kyle Van Noy and Shaq Lawson to step up this season. 

The New England Patriots are coming off a 12-win season that ended in a wild card playoff game. For the first time in forever the Patriots won’t have Tom Brady as their quarterback, as that job now falls in the lap of Cam Newton. There’s still some familiar faces on this Pats offense such as Sony Michel, Julian Edelman and left tackle Isaiah Wynn. However, there’s no doubt the Patriots will look a lot different than what we’re used to seeing, and that raises some serious question marks in terms of their dominance on the league possibly being put to an end. Defensively, the Patriots have one of the stronger secondary’s in the league with Stephon Gilmore, J.C. Jackson and Jason McCourty leading the way. The concern for the Patriots defense is at the linebacker position, as they watched a lot of key players leave and that includes the opt out of Dont’a Hightower due to COVID concerns. For the first time in a long time, the Patriots are no longer a lock to win the AFC East.

The Dolphins are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 road games, 7-2 ATS in their last 9 vs. AFC and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Patriots are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC East, 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games and 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall. The over is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games overall. The under is 9-4 in Patriots last 13 vs. AFC East. The Dolphins are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 meetings in New England. The home team is 13-3 ATS in their last 16 meetings.

The Miami Dolphins have won three of the last five meetings against the New England Patriots, which includes an outright win in December as 17.5-point underdogs to prevent the Pats from getting a first round bye in the playoffs. Brady is no longer around and the Patriots had more players than any team in the league opt out due to COVID. The Miami Dolphins had a better roster than they did a year ago and that secondary is going to test Newton and his new team out of the gate. I’ll take the fins and the free touchdown, as the Patriots aren’t the same big, bad Patriots they’ve been in years past.