San Francisco 49ers (14-5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-6)
February 11, 2024 6:30 pm EDT
The Line: Kansas City Chiefs +1.5; Over/Under: +47.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Kansas City Chiefs hope to win their fourth Super Bowl and third since 2019. The San Francisco 49ers look to win their sixth Super Bowl in franchise history and first since 1994. Let’s preview Super Bowl LVIII and give out a Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers prediction.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs have won their last 5 games and beat the Dolphins, Bills and Ravens in the playoffs. Patrick Mahomes is completing 68 percent of his passes for 718 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions. Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice have combined for 485 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Marquez Valdes-Scantling has 5 receptions. The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 127.3 yards per contest, and Isiah Pacheco leads the way with 254 yards and 3 touchdowns. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 13.7 points and 322.7 yards per game. Nick Bolton leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 27 tackles, George Karlaftis has 2.5 sacks and Mike Edwards has 1 interception.
Kansas City Chiefs Team Facts
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 12 games played on the West Coast.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last seven Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Chiefs have won the first quarter in four of their last five games against NFC West opponents.
- The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last four games against NFC West opponents.
- The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in six of their last seven games.
San Francisco 49ers Betting Preview
The San Francisco 49ers have won 9 of their last 11 games and beat the Packers and Lions in the playoffs. Brock Purdy is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 519 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle have combined for 221 receiving yards and 1 touchdown, while Brandon Aiyuk has 6 receptions. The San Francisco 49ers ground game is averaging 111 yards per contest, and Christian McCaffrey leads the way with 188 yards and 4 touchdowns. Defensively, San Francisco is allowing 21 points and 330 yards per game. Fred Warner leads the San Francisco 49ers with 20 tackles, Nick Bosa has 2 sacks and Dre Greenlaw has 2 interceptions.
San Francisco 49ers Team Facts
- The 49ers have won each of their last eight postseason games as favorites.
- The 49ers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as favorites against AFC West opponents.
- The 49ers have won the first half in seven of their last eight Sunday games.
- The 49ers have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games after a bye.
- The 49ers have lost the first quarter in each of their last two postseason games as favorites.
- The Chiefs ranked 32nd in the NFL in Q4 points per game during the reg. season (3.4).
- The Chiefs ranked 1st in the NFL in H2 opponent points per game during the reg. season (7.4).
- The 49ers ranked T1st in the NFL in interceptions during the reg. season (22).
- The 49ers ranked 1st in the NFL in red zone percentage during the reg. season (67.2%).
Kansas City Chiefs vs San Francisco 49ers prediction
The San Francisco 49ers are probably the better, more balanced team and should be favored. However, the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes, and I’m just not betting against the guy. There are a handful of players in sports you don’t bet against, and Mahomes has become one of those players. Michael Jordan, Tom Brady, Michael Phelps are on that short list as well. Mahomes as an underdog also has terrific value when you consider he’s 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog throughout his career, and 9 of those 10 covers were outright victories. Oddsmakers have made the Chiefs underdogs twice in these playoffs, and neither game was that competitive. Also, Andy Reid almost never loses when he has an extra week to prepare, and Steve Spagnuolo having two weeks to game plan for Brock ******* Purdy is something I like. Meanwhile, the 49ers are winning, but they’ve failed to cover each of their last 3 games and 5 of their last 7 games overall. I’m not betting against Mahomes, a guy who is 28 years old and chasing down his third ring, especially when I can get plus money on him. Give me the Chiefs ML on Super Bowl Sunday.