Jacksonville Jaguars (10-8) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (14-3)
January 21, 2023 4:30 pm EDT
The Line: Kansas City Chiefs -8.5 / Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 ; Over/Under: 51.5
(Get latest betting odds)
The Jacksonville Jaguars and the Kansas City Chiefs meet Saturday in NFL Playoffs Divisional Round action from Arrowhead Stadium. Jacksonville managed a wild one-point victory over the Chargers in their Wild Card Round victory last weekend. As for Kansas City, they finished the season at 14-3 overall and earned a first-round postseason bye as the top seed in the AFC. Check back all season long for free NFL picks at Sports Chat Place.
Jacksonville was sitting at just 4-8 overall at the beginning of December, and the postseason seemed a pipe dream. The Jaguars would rally with wins over the Titans, Cowboys, Jets, Texans and Titans again during the next five weeks to eke out a Wild Card berth.
Back on Saturday in the Wild Card Round game against the Chargers, Jacksonville was down 27-7 going into the third quarter. The Jaguars rallied on a 24-3 second-half run and pulled off the epic comeback win 31-30. QB Trevor Lawrence threw for 288 yards with four scores and four interceptions in the victory.
Kansas City Chiefs
Over on the Kansas City side, they started out the year on a nice 9-2 run. The only blemishes came versus the Colts and Bills in that time. The Chiefs would lose to the Bengals but then rebound with wins versus the Broncos, Texans, Seahawks, Broncos and Raiders to close out the year.
Back on January 7 in their last game versus the Raiders, Kansas City posted a 24-3 edge in the first half. The Chiefs were outscored 10-7 from there but still won 31-13. QB Patrick Mahomes posted 202 yards with a score, and Isiah Pacheco had 64 rush yards with a TD.
Current ATS Trends
The Jaguars are 4-0-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight versus the AFC. Jacksonville is 5-1 ATS in the last six overall.
Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 0-4 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine at home. Kansas City is 0-4 ATS in their last four after an ATS win.
ANDREW’S FREE PICK
I’m going to stick with Kansas City in this one. It’ll be an interesting matchup regardless, though. The last time these teams met up was back on November 13 in a 27-17 Chiefs victory. Kansas City collected 486 yards and 26 first downs in that one, but also coughed up three turnovers. Jacksonville is a different team since then, with lots more confidence following the crazy Wild Card victory over the Chargers. The Jaguars gave away five turnovers in that one and went just 2-of-10 on third-down tries. If they don’t clean up their act significantly in this game, I don’t see Jacksonville hanging around for long in the difficult environment of Arrowhead Stadium.