Last season in the NFL some teams beat the odds and made it to the playoffs. Can we expect more surprises in the 2023-24 campaign? Here you can check out the odds and NFL picks for teams to make the playoffs.  

SELECTION	YES	NO
Arizona Cardinals	+1225	-2500
Atlanta Falcons	+142	-175
Baltimore Ravens	-160	+130
Buffalo Bills	-245	+200
Carolina Panthers	+190	-235
Chicago Bears	+170	-210
Cincinnati Bengals	-320	+240
Cleveland Browns	+100	-125
Dallas Cowboys	-210	+170
Denver Broncos	+195	-240
Detroit Lions	-175	+145
Green Bay Packers	+195	-240
Houston Texans	+550	-850
Indianapolis Colts	+360	-500
Jacksonville Jaguars	-210	+170
Kansas City Chiefs	-550	+390
Las Vegas Raiders	+360	-500
Los Angeles Chargers	-105	-115
Los Angeles Rams	+250	-330
Miami Dolphins	-110	-110
Minnesota Vikings	+105	-130
New England Patriots	+240	-320
New Orleans Saints	-200	+165
New York Giants	+150	-180
New York Jets	-156	+127
Philadelphia Eagles	-450	+330
Pittsburgh Steelers	+130	-160
Seattle Seahawks	-125	+100
San Francisco 49ers	-450	+330
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	+360	-500
Tennessee Titans	+280	-370
Washington Commanders	+280	-370

 

Atlanta Falcons – YES

The NFC South is the most unpredictable division and the only division which didn’t have a .500 team last season. The Atlanta Falcons ended the 2022-23 with a 7-10 record, only a win away from the divisional champions Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This time around, the Bucs are way weaker and are expected to finish last in the NFC South, which is a chance for the young Falcons to climb up a step or two and reach the playoffs for the first time since 2017.

It wasn’t easy to get accustomed to life without Matt Ryan, who spent 14 years with the franchise, but the Falcons now have high hopes for a second-year QB Desmond Ridder. Ridder was solid in four starts last year, and although he developed a strong connection with WR1 Drake London, Atlanta’s strength is in its rushing offense. The Falcons had the third-best rushing attack in the NFL last year. Now, they are stronger for Bijan Robinson, who had 1,580 rushing yards and 18 touchdowns for the Texas Longhorns in 2022 and was voted the nation’s best running back.  

The team added experience on defense and improved its pass rushing by bringing DE Calais Campbell and LB Bud Dupree. Two of them combined for 9.5 sacks last season and should help the Falcons. Atlanta has a reliable kicker in Younghoe Koo and one of the best special teamers in the league – Cordarrelle Patterson.

And last but not least, the Falcons have one of the most favorable schedules in 2023. Atlanta will play four of the opening six games at home (one vs. Jaguars in London, UK) and host the Panthers, Packers, Texans, and Commanders. All these teams are more than beatable, so the Falcons can hope for a bright start. I wouldn’t back them if they were playing in another division, but in the NFC South, there is value in betting on the Falcons to make the playoffs at +142 odds.

Denver Broncos – YES

Now, the AFC West is much stronger than the NFC South. The competition is fierce; after all, the reigning NFL champions are playing in this division. Right now, the Denver Broncos are regarded as the third-best teams in the division behind the Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers. If we exclude the Las Vegas Raiders from the playoff picture, all three may make the postseason.

The Broncos are coming off a disappointing 5-12 campaign in which they had the worst offense that averaged 16.9 ppg. However, Denver hired Sean Payton as a new head coach, who is expected to revive Russell Wilson’s career. The fans are excited to see two future Hall of Famers work together on offense, and Wilson will undoubtedly have a bounce-back season. Running back Javonte Williams is back from a knee injury, while the rest of the offense (receiving corps) remains the same. Jerry Jeudy and Courtland Sutton will serve as Wilson’s top targets. Tim Patrick is healthy after missing the entire 2022, and Greg Dulcich will be looking to build on his solid rookie season. The Broncos splashed the cash to reinforce their offensive line and brought T Mike McGlinchey and G Ben Powers.

The defense was already reasonably strong but now seems sturdier with the additions of defensive ends Frank Clark and Zach Allen. They combined for 10.5 sacks last year, and I expect them to combine for 10+ in 2023. Denver’s former head coach, Vance Joseph, will now work as a new defensive coordinator under Payton. The change in personnel and Wilson’s redemption campaign are the biggest reasons you should back the Broncos to reach the playoffs at +195.

New York Giants – YES

The New York Giants surprised many by reaching the postseason in 2022. It was mostly thanks to Brian Daboll, who turned QB Daniel Jones into a running threat, something he did with Josh Allen during his tenure as an OC in Buffalo. Jones was the 5th QB in the NFL in rushing yards (708) last year, and added seven touchdowns, two more than in his first three seasons combined. The former first-round pick threw for just five interceptions. Alongside Saquon Barkley (1,312 rushing yards and 10 TDs), Jones led the team to its first playoff appearance since 2016.

The Giants’ offense will be better for WR Parris Campbell, who joined from the Indianapolis Colts. Darius Slayton returned on a two-year contract, while TE Darren Waller came in a trade with the Las Vegas Raiders. Waller, a 2020 Pro Bowler, will provide a much-needed experience in the air and improve the 26th passing offense.

Another player who came from Indianapolis is linebacker Bobby Okereke. He was top 10 in combined tackles (151) and top 5 in solo tackles (85) last season. It looks like the Giants will be stronger in 2023, and even though the competition in NFC East remains stiff, I am backing the G-Men to secure back-to-back playoff appearances at +150 odds.

New York Jets – YES

Perhaps the most natural choice on this list is the New York Jets. They finally made a playoff team that should at least secure a Wild Card spot in 2023. Buffalo and Miami will provide tough competition in AFC East, but the Jets will improve on their 7-10 record.

The biggest reason for thinking this is the arrival of a future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers, who spent his entire career with the Green Bay Packers, came along with OC Nathaniel Hackett, who worked with A-Rod in Green Bay between 2019 and 2021. Hackett failed in his first attempt as a head coach in Denver and returned to a more familiar role. New York’s offense was one of the worst in the NFL last year (17.4 ppg), but that will change now.

Running back Breece Hall will make a full recovery from a knee injury. The Jets signed receivers Allen Lazard and Mecole Hardman Jr. to provide Rodgers with more offensive weapons, while the 2023 Rookie of the Year winner Garrett Wilson will likely be a top option through the air. Defensively, the Jets are even more talented. They had the 4th best D last year (18.4 ppg allowed), thanks to a strong campaign from DT Quinnen Williams, DE Carl Lawson, and Defensive Rookie of the Year, Sauce Gardner. DT Quinton Jefferson joined the crew, and another top 5 ranking is on the cards for the Jets’ defense. The odds of making playoffs are not great, but it is a sure shot at -156 to end the longest active playoff drought (12 years) in all major sports.

Seattle Seahawks – YES

The Seattle Seahawks, just like the Giants, surprised by making the playoffs in 2022. Especially after a blockbuster trade in which they sent Russell Wilson to Denver. That move proved to be just right for the Seahawks, who got a pair of first-round picks in the 2023 NFL Draft. A forgotten quarterback Geno Smith had the best season of his career as he posted Pro Bowl numbers, finishing in the top 10 in passing yards (4,282) and in the top 5 in passing touchdowns (30). Both DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett had 1,000+ receiving yards, and now the Seahawks added Jaxon Smith-Njigba with the 20th pick. Kenneth Walker III made it into the PFWA All-Rookie Team after impressing with 1,050 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

While the offense should remain in the top 10, the defense must improve if the Seahawks want to compete with the San Francisco 49ers for the NFC West title. That’s why they selected cornerback Devon Witherspoon with the 5th pick overall and got themselves a Tatum–Woodson Defensive Back of the Year. Seattle is ahead of the Rams and Cardinals, and I am backing the Seahawks to have another over .500 season, which should be enough for the playoffs. Back them at -125.