Bills vs Buccaneers Prediction 11/16/25 NFL Picks Today

In this article we will formulate a Bills vs Buccaneers prediction for this NFL game on Sunday, November 16th at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York. Let’s take a look at the prediction for this week 11 matchup.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills are 6-3 this season after they lost to Miami by a score of 30-13 last week. Buffalo trailed 16-0 at halftime and allowed 14 more points in the second half for the ugly loss. The Bills out gained Miami by a total of 376-370, went 5-15 on third downs, and lost the turnover battle by a total of 3-2 in the game. Josh Allen went 28-40 for 306 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception, while James Cook rushed 13 times for 53 yards. Khalil Shakir led the receivers with seven catches for 58 yards in the loss. The Buffalo defense recorded zero sacks and six tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Buffalo defeated the Chiefs by a score of 28-21 and the Panthers by a score of 40-9. The Bills have won two of their last three games and they are currently second in the AFC East standings. Buffalo has scored 27.6 points per game with 231.2 passing yards and 153.2 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 21.9 points against per game this season. Josh Allen has thrown for 2,139 yards, 15 touchdowns, and five interceptions, while James Cook has 920 rushing yards and seven scores on 166 carries this year. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Betting Preview

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are 6-3 this year after they lost to New England by a score of 28-23 in their last game. Tampa Bay trailed 14-10 at halftime and they were outscored 14-13 in the second half in the loss. The Buccaneers were out gained by a total of 435-371, went 5-13 on third downs, and won the turnover battle by a total of 1-0 in the game. Baker Mayfield went 28-43 for 273 yards and three touchdowns, while Sean Tucker rushed nine times for 53 yards, Emeka Egbuka led the receivers with six catches for 115 yards and one touchdown in the loss. The TB defense recorded one sack and three tackles for loss in the game. 

Prior to that game, Tampa Bay defeated the Saints by a score of 23-3, but lost to the Lions by a score of 24-9 before that. The Buccaneers have lost two of their last three games and they are currently first in the NFC South standings. Tampa Bay has scored 24.4 points per game with 228.6 passing yards and 99.8 rushing yards per game, while they have allowed 22.9 points against per game this season. Baker Mayfield has thrown for 2,192 yards, 16 touchdowns, and two interceptions, while Emeka Egbuka has 40 receptions for 677 yards and six scores this year. 

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won each of their last nine games at Highmark Stadium following a Division game.
• The Buccaneers have lost each of their last four November road games against AFC opponents.
• The Bills have covered the spread in eight of their last nine home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Buccaneers have failed to cover the spread in four of their last five games played as underdogs on the East Coast.
• The Bills have won the first half in each of their last nine home games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Buccaneers have lost the first quarter in seven of their eight previous Week 11 games against AFC opponents.
• The Bills have scored the first touchdown in 13 of their last 15 home games against NFC opponents.

Why the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will win

• The underdogs have won four of the Bills’ last five games.
• The Bills have lost three of their last four games as favorites.
• The Buccaneers have covered the spread in each of their last eight road games following a home loss.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in five of their last six games as favorites.
• The Buccaneers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four Sunday games.
• The underdogs have won the first half in four of the Bills’ last five games.
• The underdogs have won the first quarter in four of the Bills’ last five games.

Total Points Facts

• Eight of the Buccaneers’ last nine November games as road underdogs have gone OVER the total points line.
• Five of the Bills’ last six games as home favorites following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• Josh Allen has scored two touchdowns in three of the Bills’ last four games against teams that held a winning record.
• Josh Allen has recorded 38+ rushing yards in each of the Bills’ last five November games against NFC opponents.
• Josh Allen has recorded 235+ passing yards in each of the Bills’ last seven November games.
• James Cook has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last six appearances following a road loss.
• James Cook has recorded 99+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last seven appearances following a road loss.
• Dawson Knox has recorded 12+ receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last six games following a loss.
• Josh Allen has recorded 22+ completions in each of the Bills’ last six November games.
• Heading into Week 11, James Cook is the only player in the NFL to record 100+ rushing yards in three or more consecutive games this season.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Player Prop Facts

• Rachaad White has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Buccaneers’ last five games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 228+ passing yards in seven of the Buccaneers’ last eight games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points).
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 20+ rushing yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last four games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Rachaad White has recorded 71+ rushing and receiving yards in six of the Buccaneers’ last seven Sunday games as road underdogs.
• Rachaad White has scored the last touchdown in three of the Buccaneers’ last four games as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Cade Otton has recorded 45+ receiving yards in each of the Buccaneers’ last four November games as road underdogs.
• Baker Mayfield has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Buccaneers’ last six games as underdogs following a home loss.
• Heading into Week 11, Emeka Egbuka ranks 1st in the NFL in 20+ yard receiving touchdowns (5) this season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Heading into Week 11, the Bills rank 1st in the NFL in rushing yards per game (153.2) this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Bills are the only team in the NFL to be both top 5 in average time of possession and yards per game this season.
• Heading into Week 11, the Buccaneers have recorded the equal-most wins when trailing after Q3 this season (4).
• Heading into Week 11, the Buccaneers have recorded the equal-most wins by a margin of three points or less this season (4).

Bills vs Buccaneers Prediction 

Buffalo comes into this matchup trying to bounce back from an ugly game against Miami last week, but they have lost three of their last five games. The Bills did defeat Kansas City in their last home game, but their defense is questionable. Tampa Bay has dropped two of their last three games and they continue to deal with a ton of injuries at their skill positions. Despite their injuries, Tampa Bay has scored at least 23 points in four of their last five games and should find success through the air in this matchup. I think we will see plenty of scoring in this one and I like the over here.

David Racey is 63-35 (64%) in the NFL this season and he is currently #1 on the NFL Leaderboard. David went 6-3 in the NFL last week and continues to be red hot. Click here for his premium plays for this week!