Buffalo Bills vs Miami Dolphins prediction 10-1-23 NFL Picks
Buffalo Bills (2-1) vs Miami Dolphins (3-0)
2023-10-01 13:00:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Buffalo Bills -3 -- Over/Under: 53.5
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The Miami Dolphins and the Buffalo Bills meet in week 4 NFL action from Highmark Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Dolphins Dismantle Broncos To Remain Unbeaten
The Miami Dolphins put forth quite the display to improve to 3-0 on the year with a 70-20 rout of the Denver Broncos in their home opener last time out. Tua Tagovailoa has thrown for 1,024 yards, 8 touchdowns and 2 interceptions on 71.3% passing while Raheem Mostert’s rushed for 240 yards and 6 TDs to lead Miami on the ground and De’Von Achane has 208 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns. Tyreek Hill leads Miami’s receivers with 25 receptions for 412 yards and 4 touchdowns while Jaylen Waddle and Braxton Berrios each have 100+ receiving yards. On defense, Jevon Holland has a team-high 33 total tackles while Miami’s defense as a whole has 8 sacks and 2 interceptions.
Miami Dolphins Team Facts
The Dolphins have lost each of their last nine Sunday games at Highmark Stadium.
The Dolphins have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games in October.
The Dolphins have lost the first quarter in nine of their last 10 Sunday games at Highmark Stadium.
The Dolphins have lost the first half in each of their last eight Week 4 games.
The Dolphins have scored the first touchdown in four of their last five games following a win.
Miami Dolphins Player Prop Facts
Jaylen Waddle ranked 1st amongst qualified players for Yards Per Reception (18.1) last season
Bills Destroy Commanders
The Buffalo Bills picked apart the Washington Commanders by a final score of 37-3 to improve to 2-1 on the year with back-to-back wins. Josh Allen has thrown for 728 yards, 5 touchdowns and 4 interceptions on 72.7% passing while James Cook leads the Bills on the ground with 267 rushing yards this season. Stefon Diggs has a team-high 25 receptions for 279 yards while Gabe Davis has 159 receiving yards and 2 touchdowns this season. On defense, Terrel Bernard has a team-high 24 total tackles, 2 sacks and 2 interceptions while Matt Milano has a pair of interceptions and Leonard Floyd has a team-high 3.5 sacks this season.
Buffalo Bills Team Facts
The Bills have won each of their last seven home games against the Dolphins.
The Bills have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six October games against AFC East opponents.
The Bills have won the first quarter in each of their last four home games in October.
The Bills have won the first half in eight of their last nine games against teams that held a winning record.
The Bills have scored the first touchdown in each of their last eight games against the Dolphins.
Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts
Josh Allen ranked T2nd in the NFL in Passing Touchdowns (35) last season
Chris’ Pick
I’m going with the Dolphins in this one. I said coming into this game I wanted to be on the side of the underdog, and I’m going to be honest, I thought it would be closer to a pick ‘em. But this isn’t an overreaction to the 70-point game from Miami. The Dolphins have been consistently good through the first three weeks of the season. Buffalo’s been solid as well, but I’d argue that the Dolphins have been better against tougher opposition. I think there’s value here with the free field goal.