NFL Picks

Chiefs vs Bills NFL Player Props

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
January 18, 2024 6:30 pm EDT
The Line: Buffalo Bills -2.5; Over/Under: +46.5
(Get latest betting odds)

We give you the Chiefs vs Bills NFL Player Props, as the Kansas City Chiefs visit Highmark Stadium to face the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Round. Both teams justified their favorite roles against the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers, respectively, in the Wild Card.

Chiefs vs Bills NFL Player Props – Patrick Mahomes Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (+120)

Patrick Mahomes is one of the best quarterbacks of his generation, if not the best, but one thing is certain – he doesn’t play well against the Buffalo Bills. In four games against the Bills, Mahomes has a 1-3 record. The two-time Super Bowl champion and six-time Pro Bowler threw for seven touchdowns and five interceptions in those four duels, which is my strongest argument for backing Under 1.5 passing touchdowns here.

On average, Mahomes throws for below two TDs against the Bills, and when we take his latest numbers into consideration, this pick has even stronger value. Namely, the Chiefs’ QB threw one passing touchdown in five of the last six games, including the previous three. In Kansas City’s 20-17 loss to Buffalo earlier this season, Mahomes had one TD and one INT as he threw for a solid 271 yards.

Buffalo is his kryptonite and I am pretty sure the Bills’ pass defense, which is allowing 196.6 yards (7th best in the NFL) and 1.06 touchdowns to the opposing quarterbacks (2nd in the NFL), will limit Mahomes in this one. Mahomes can always turn to Travis Kelce in the end zone, but I don’t see other receivers who can pose a danger to the Bills’ secondary. Also, running back Isiah Pacheco is playing well lately (85+ rushing yards in four of the last six games), so the Chiefs could use their run offense more on Sunday.

Josh Allen Over 42.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Josh Allen faced Mahomes on four occasions and is 3-1 against the Chiefs. There are several strong arguments for this pick, so let’s start with the fact that Allen ran for 44+ yards in each of the last three games. Additionally, he recorded 8+ rushing attempts in six of the previous seven games. In a win over the Chiefs this year, Allen rushed ten times for 32 yards and scored a touchdown.

He went under when it comes to rushing yards in that tilt, but given he averages 4.72 yards per carry for the season and I expect him to rush 10+ times here, Allen should be good enough for 45 yards. The reason I expect him to run frequently is Kansas City’s extraordinary passing defense. The Chiefs have the fourth-best secondary that allows just 176.5 yards through the air. On the other hand, they are bang average in rushing defense, allowing 113.5 yards per game.

Allen is Buffalo’s second-best runner after James Cook, so 43+ rushing yards here doesn’t look like something he can’t achieve.

We are hopeful our Chiefs vs Bills NFL Player Props piece will help you in making a profit on this AFC Divisional Round clash. Here you can check out the Buccaneers vs Lions NFL Player Props.

Oliver Zivic

Professional journalist and expert bettor with 20+ years of experience. I cover Football (soccer), NFL, NBA, NHL, MLB, CFB, and CBB.

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