Buffalo Bills (7-2) vs. Indianapolis Colts (4-5)
November 10, 2024 1:00 pm EDT
The Line: Indianapolis Colts +2.5; Over/Under: +47.5
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Indianapolis Colts vs Buffalo Bills Player Prop Picks 11-10-24
The Bills are coming off a strong 7-2 start, leading the AFC East and enjoying one of the best point differentials in the NFL (+87). Quarterback Josh Allen has been playing at an elite level, with 2,001 passing yards, 17 touchdowns, and only 2 interceptions this season. His sharpness, especially in limiting turnovers, has been a key improvement this year. The Bills have a balanced offense, with solid contributions from running back James Cook and a receiving corps led by Keon Coleman and Khalil Shakir. On defense, Buffalo has been solid, allowing only 19.2 points per game.
On the other hand, the Colts are struggling with a 4-5 record. Despite this, they have been resilient in close games, though their offense has been inconsistent. The Colts recently turned to veteran quarterback Joe Flacco, and while he has experience, he’s not the same player he once was. Running back Jonathan Taylor has been a bright spot with 502 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns. However, Indianapolis’ defense has been vulnerable, particularly in the secondary, which could be a concern against the high-powered Bills offense. With the Bills favored by 4.5 points, they enter as the stronger team, but the Colts will look to rely on their home-field advantage and hope to capitalize on any weaknesses in the Bills’ defense. Buffalo’s sharp offense, however, should be able to handle the Colts’ defensive struggles, making them the favorites to win.
James Cook Over 15.5 Rec Yards -115
James Cook is expected to record more than 15 receiving yards against the Colts on November 10 due to his consistent role as a receiving back in the Buffalo Bills offense. So far in the 2024 season, he has been involved in the passing game, catching passes out of the backfield. Cook has totaled 170 receiving yards on 13 catches, averaging 20.7 yards per game. This makes him a reliable outlet for quarterback Josh Allen, who has frequently used him in passing situations.
The Colts defense has been susceptible to running backs in the passing game, so this trend of Cook getting multiple targets and contributing in the passing game should continue. Cook has big play potential every time he touches the ball and he can get over this number from just one catch.
Joe Flacco Over 227.5 Pass Yards -110
Joe Flacco has taken over the starting role for this Colts team and is looking to find his groove this season, completing 68% of his passes for 895 yards. He has thrown 4 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. Despite a relatively modest yardage total, Flacco has been efficient. He is known for his experience and ability to stretch the field, though his overall production has been limited in certain matchups. Flacco will need to continue making effective use of his arm to remain competitive against tougher defenses.
The Bills’ defense has been struggling against the pass, allowing significant yardage to opposing quarterbacks. The Bills are 3.5-point favorites in this game so expect Flacco and the Colts to be playing behind. I expect the Bills to put their focus on Jonathan Taylor and force Flacco to move the ball through the air. We saw last season with the Browns each week Flacco got better and I wouldn’t be surprised if that’s going to be the same case with him and the Colts. With Flacco’s ability to stretch the field and utilize his experience in the passing game, he is likely to exceed that yardage in a competitive matchup.
Khalil Shakir Over 66.5 Rec Yards -115
Khalil Shakir is expected to surpass 66 receiving yards on November 10 against the Indianapolis Colts due to a combination of factors. He has been a steady contributor for the Buffalo Bills, racking up 471 receiving yards on the season across 8 games. Shakir has been building momentum, with a standout 107-yard performance against Seattle a couple weeks ago.
The Colts’ defense is ranked lower in pass coverage, making this an ideal opportunity for Shakir to exploit their vulnerabilities and potentially reach that yardage milestone. The Bills will be without Keon Coleman and Amari Cooper is questionable so Shakir will have to be Josh Allens main option. With the Bills’ offense relying on Josh Allen’s arm, Shakir should see plenty of targets and could exceed 66 yards in this matchup.
