Jaguars vs Bills Prediction 1/11/26 NFL Picks Today

The Buffalo Bills and the Jacksonville Jaguars meet Sunday in NFL Playoffs Wild Card Round action from EverBank Stadium. Here’s a Jaguars vs Bills prediction. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best Jaguars vs Bills pick.

Buffalo Bills Betting Preview

The Bills beat Baltimore, the Jets, Miami and New Orleans in their first four games this year. After the bye Buffalo took out the Panthers, Chiefs, Buccaneers, Steelers, Bengals, Patriots and Browns amid losses to the Dolphins and Texans over the next nine outings. That would give the Bills an 11-4 overall run in their first 15 games of the season. Buffalo finished with a loss to Philly and a win over the Jets for a 12-5 record so far this year.

In their final regular-season game versus the lowly New York Jets on Sunday, the Bills were comfortably ahead 21-0 by the end of the first half. Buffalo ended up scoring in every quarter on the way to a 35-8 blowout win at home. The Bills’ Mitch Trubisky put up a 22-of-29 line for 259 yards and four scores while Ray Davis rushed for 151 yards on 21 carries. Keon Coleman had 29 yards on two receptions in the victory effort as well.

Jacksonville Jaguars Betting Preview

Over on the Jaguars’ side, they entered their bye week with a shaky 4-3 record, falling to the Bengals, Seahawks and Rams along the way. Jacksonville has lost just one game since then however (versus Houston on November 9). The wins otherwise have come versus the Raiders, Chargers, Cardinals, Titans, Colts, Jets, Broncos, Colts again and Titans again. Through the regular season’s 17 games the Jaguars managed a 13-4 run.

On Sunday versus the Titans, Jacksonville held a slim 7-7 tie early then put up 24 unanswered points in the second quarter. The Jags cruised on 10 more points in the second for a 41-7 win. Trevor Lawrence had 255 yards with three scores on 22-of-30 passing and also led the rush with 32 yards on 14 carries. Parker Washington had five catches for 87 yards and a score as the team’s top receiver.

Why the Jacksonville Jaguars will win

• The home team has won each of the Bills’ last nine Wild Card Round games.
• The Bills have lost each of their last eight road postseason games.
• The Jaguars have covered the spread in each of their last eight games without Jordan Akins.
• The Bills have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games as favorites following a win.
• The Jaguars have won the first quarter in each of their last four games as underdogs.
• The Jaguars have won the first half in eight of their last nine Sunday games at EverBank Stadium.
• The Jaguars have scored the first touchdown in each of their last six games following a home win.

Why the Buffalo Bills will win

• The Bills have won nine of their last 10 games following a Division win.
• The Jaguars have lost each of their last four games without Josh Hines-Allen.
• The Jaguars have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games without Brenton Strange.
• The Bills have covered the spread in 10 of their last 12 games against teams that held a winning record.
• The Jaguars have won the first quarter in four of their last five games as slight underdogs (<+3.5 points).
• The Bills have won the first half in each of their last six Wild Card Round games.
• The Bills have scored the first touchdown in five of their last six Wild Card Round games.

Total Points Facts

• Nine of the Jaguars’ last 10 games as underdogs following a win have gone OVER the total points line.
• Each of the Bills’ last five games as favorites in Florida have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the last three Sunday games at EverBank Stadium have gone OVER the total points line.

Jacksonville Jaguars Player Prop Facts

• Travis Etienne has scored two or more touchdowns in three of the Jaguars’ last four home games.
• Brian Thomas has recorded 47+ receiving yards in 12 of his 13 previous appearances with the Jaguars as underdogs against AFC opponents.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 20+ completions in each of his last five January appearances.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 244+ passing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last five games.
• Trevor Lawrence has recorded 26+ rushing yards in each of the Jaguars’ last five games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• Travis Etienne has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Jaguars’ last four games as underdogs.
• Parker Washington has recorded 75+ receiving yards in three consecutive games (including playoffs) – equal-longest streak in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.

Buffalo Bills Player Prop Facts

• Dawson Knox has scored the first touchdown in four of the Bills’ last five Wild Card Round games.
• James Cook has scored two or more touchdowns in five of the Bills’ last six road games against teams that held a winning record.
• Josh Allen has recorded 253+ passing yards in 16 of the Bills’ last 17 road games with a total points line of at least 50.0.
• James Cook has recorded 85+ rushing yards in eight of the Bills’ last nine road games.
• Dawson Knox has recorded 23+ receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last seven games played on the East Coast.
• James Cook has recorded 111+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Bills’ last four road games.
• Josh Allen has recorded 21+ completions in each of the Bills’ last nine games as favorites against AFC South opponents.
• Josh Allen has scored at least one touchdown in 12 of the Bills’ last 13 day games against teams on a winning streak.
• James Cook ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards (1621) during the reg. season.

Matchup/League Facts

• Jaguars – seven different players have recorded 70+ receiving yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
• The Jaguars ranked 1st in the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (85.6) during the reg. season.
• Bills – two different players have recorded 80+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.
• Bills – two different players have recorded 90+ rushing yards in a game this season – equal-most in the NFL, heading into the Wild Card Round.

Jaguars vs Bills Prediction

I’m going to try the Jaguars in this one, but it would be nice if the line were a little thicker. Jacksonville has taken care of business since the bye week this year—even though they’ve played a handful of not-so-good teams in that time. Still, you can’t argue with the results. The Jags pummeled the Titans in their last game, giving up just 194 yards, 3.7 yards per play, 10 first downs and 4-of-14 on third downs defensively. That gives Jacksonville at least 36 points in four of the last five games, and they’ve held opponents to fewer than 21 points in seven of the eight games during this current win streak (24 in the other during an overtime win versus the Cardinals).

As for Buffalo, they didn’t have much trouble with the Jets last weekend—even with their secondary players in the game. The Bills held New York’s horrid offense to just 122 yards, 53 pass yards, nine first downs and 5-of-13 on third downs. Buffalo has won five of the last six games themselves, with the lone outlier being a one-point loss to Philly. The Bills have scored 35 or more points in three of the last five games as well. This playoff matchup could shake out a lot of different ways, but I think it’ll be a fairly high total in an entertaining matchup. Should be a good one to watch.