Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction 12/25/25 NFL Picks Today

The Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs meet in week 17 NFL action from Geha Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Thursday. We will look at this from a betting perspective and determine the best bets for this game. Here’s a Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction.

Denver Broncos Recap

The Denver Broncos come into this game looking to shake off a 34-20 loss at the hands of the Jacksonville Jaguars to sit at 12-3 on the year. After this game, Denver will head home for a potentially crucial game against the Los Angeles Chargers

Broncos Have Win Streak Snapped

Bo Nix has thrown for 3,608 yards, 24 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on 63.2% passing while J.K. Dobbins has rushed for a team-high 772 yards and 4 touchdowns and RJ Harvey has 469 rushing yards so far this season. Courtland Sutton leads Denver’s receiving group with 69 receptions for 972 receiving yards and 7 touchdowns while Troy Franklin also has 61 receptions for 692 yards and 6 touchdowns. Four more Broncos have 300+ receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Alex Singleton has a team-high 124 total tackles while Nik Bonitto has a team-high 12.5 sacks and Jonathon Cooper has 8 sacks. As a unit, Denver’s defense has combined for 63 sacks and 9 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Denver Broncos will win

• The Broncos have won each of their last 10 games as favorites against opponents on a losing streak.
• The Chiefs have lost each of their last five games without Clyde Edwards-Helaire.
• The Chiefs have failed to cover the spread in each of their last nine games without Isiah Pacheco.
• The Broncos have covered the spread in each of their last eight games as favorites without Alex Singleton.

Denver Broncos Player Prop Facts

• Courtland Sutton has scored a touchdown in each of the Broncos’ last five games following a loss.
• Bo Nix has recorded 23+ completions in each of the Broncos’ last five games.
• Jaleel McLaughlin has recorded 35+ rushing yards in six of his last seven appearances with the Broncos as favorites following a loss.
• Bo Nix has recorded 295+ passing yards in four of the Broncos’ last five games.
• Evan Engram has recorded 29+ receiving yards in 11 of his last 12 appearances with his team as a favorite following a loss.
• Marvin Mims Jr. has recorded 24+ rushing and receiving yards in four of his last five appearances with the Broncos as favorites against AFC opponents.
• Heading into Week 17, Bo Nix ranks 1st amongst qualified players for sack percentage (3.0%) this season.

Kansas City Chiefs Recap

The Kansas City Chiefs come into this game off of their 26-9 loss at the hands of the Tennessee Titans last time out to sit at 6-9 this season. After this game, Kansas City will head on the road for their season finale against the Las Vegas Raiders.

Chiefs Lose 4 Straight & 6 Of Last 7

Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 3,587 yards, 22 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on 62.7% passing while also rushing for 422 yards and 5 TDs, but is out for the rest of the season because of injury. Kareem Hunt has rushed for a team-high 559 yards and 8 TDs while Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 430 yards. Travis Kelce leads the Chiefs with 68 catches for 803 yards and 5 TDs while Rashee Rice has 571 receiving yards with 5 TDs and Hollywood Brown has 516 receiving yards with 5 TDs as well. Xavier Worthy has 532 receiving yards and Tyquan Thornton has 438 receiving yards while JuJu Smith-Schuster has 316 receiving yards as well this season. On defense, Nick Bolton leads the Chiefs with 133 total tackles while George Karlaftis has a team-high 6 sacks. As a unit, Kansas City’s defense has combined for 31 sacks and 8 interceptions so far this season.

Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win

• The Chiefs have won each of their last 10 games without Michael Danna.
• The Broncos have lost each of their last nine games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
• The underdogs have covered the spread in each of the Broncos’ last seven games.
• The Broncos have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six games as road favorites before a Division game.

Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts

• Kareem Hunt has scored a touchdown in four of the Chiefs’ last five games against teams that held a winning record.
• Xavier Worthy has recorded 35+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 10 home games against AFC opponents.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 31+ rushing yards in each of his 11 previous appearances with the Chiefs as underdogs.
• Kareem Hunt has recorded 34+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his 11 previous appearances with the Chiefs as underdogs.
• Heading into Week 17, Isiah Pacheco ranks 2nd in the league amongst qualified players for broken tackle percentage (54.5%) this season.

Total Points Facts

• Each of the Chiefs’ last 10 games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium following a loss have gone UNDER the total points line.
• Each of the Broncos’ last seven games in December have gone OVER the total points line.
• Six of the last eight games between AFC West teams have gone UNDER the total points line.

Chiefs vs Broncos Prediction

I’m on the under in this one. I just think that this is a low-scoring game, with this Chiefs’ offense in shambles and now on their third QB in as many weeks. The Broncos just need to get in and out with a win to keep their standing atop the AFC West and the AFC as a whole. I think we have a low-scoring battle here, so give me the under.