Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers prediction 10-22-23 NFL Picks
Kansas City Chiefs (5-1) vs Los Angeles Chargers (2-2)
2023-10-22 16:25:00 EDT
The Line: Betting Odds: Kansas City Chiefs -6 -- Over/Under: 52
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The Los Angeles Chargers and the Kansas City Chiefs meet in week 7 NFL action from Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday afternoon.
Chargers On Short Week
The Los Angeles Chargers come into this game on a short week after taking on the Dallas Cowboys on Monday night. Heading into Monday’s game, Justin Herber has thrown for 1,106 yards, 7 touchdowns and an interception on 71% passing while Joshua Kelley has rushed for 207 yards and Austin Ekeler has 117 rushing yards. Keenan Allen leads the Chargers’ receiving group with 434 receiving yards and 35 receptions with 3 TDs this season. On defense, Kenneth Murray Jr. has a team-high 26 total tackles while Khalil Mack has a team-high 6 sacks and Joey Bosa has 3 sacks.
Los Angeles Chargers Team Facts
- The Chargers have won four of their last five games as underdogs following a loss.
- The Chargers have covered the spread in each of their last five games as underdogs following a loss.
- The Chargers have won the first half in each of their last six games against the Chiefs.
- The Chargers have scored the first touchdown in each of their last 12 games.
- The Chargers have won the first quarter in each of their last four games as underdogs against reigning Super Bowl champions.
Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Facts
- Austin Ekeler has scored two or more touchdowns in three of his last four appearances following a home loss.
- Justin Herbert has recorded 278+ passing yards in eight of the Chargers’ last nine road games against AFC West opponents.
- Josh Palmer has recorded 30+ receiving yards in each of the Chargers’ last eight games as underdogs.
- Joshua Kelley has recorded 33+ rushing yards in four of the Chargers’ last five regular season games against AFC opponents.
- Austin Ekeler has scored the first touchdown in three of his last four appearances against conference opponents.
- Austin Ekeler has scored at least one touchdown in each of his last seven appearances following a loss.
- Austin Ekeler has recorded 100+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last four appearances with the Chargers as underdogs following a loss.
- Justin Herbert has recorded 26+ completions in each of the Chargers’ last nine games following a home loss.
- Justin Herbert has thrown three or more touchdowns in each of the Chargers’ last three games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
- Eric Kendricks is just one away from 10 career interceptions.
Chiefs Get By Broncos
The Kansas City Chiefs are on the other end of the rest scale, having not played since their 19-8 win over Denver on Thursday night. Patrick Mahomes has thrown for 1,593 yards, 11 touchdowns and 5 interceptions on 68.3% passing while Isiah Pacheco has rushed for 387 yards and 3 touchdowns. Travis Kelce leads KC’s receiving group with 36 receptions for 346 yards and 3 TDs while Rashee Rice and Justin Watson each have 200+ receiving yards and four more Chiefs have 100+ receiving yards as well on the year. On defense, Drue Tranquill has a team-high 35 total tackles while Chris Jones has a team-high 5.5 sacks and Mike Danna has 3.5 sacks this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Team Facts
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 12 home games before a Division game.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in six of their last seven home games before a Division game.
- The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last eight Sunday home games.
- The Chiefs have won the first half in each of their last nine games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
- The Chiefs have won the first quarter in each of their last six Sunday games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts
- Patrick Mahomes II has recorded 272+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 10 Sunday home games.
- Jerick McKinnon has recorded 17+ receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last 10 Sunday home games.
- Patrick Mahomes II has recorded 28+ rushing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last five October games as favorites against AFC opponents.
- Travis Kelce has scored a touchdown in five of the Chiefs’ last six Sunday games.
- Jerick McKinnon has recorded 26+ rushing and receiving yards in each of the Chiefs’ last six Sunday regular season games at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium.
- Patrick Mahomes II has recorded 26+ completions in eight of the Chiefs’ last nine Sunday games as home favorites.
- Patrick Mahomes II has thrown two or more touchdowns in eight of the Chiefs’ last nine Sunday games.
- L’Jarius Sneed is just one away from 10 career interceptions (including playoffs).
Matchup/League Facts
- The Chiefs rank 32nd in the NFL in kickoff return yards per game this season (5.7).
- The Chiefs rank T1st in the NFL in H1 win percentage this season (83.3).
- The Chargers rank 32nd in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game this season (289.0).
- The Chargers rank 32nd in the NFL in average yards per punt this season (40.7).
Chris’ Pick
I get the case to be made for either side here, as KC has the rest advantage, but I’m taking the Chargers and the points. Los Angeles has done a good job of keeping a lot of the recent meetings close between these two teams and the Chiefs have played a lot of games tight as of late whether they like it or not. I think there’s value getting nearly a touchdown so give me the Chargers and the points.