Kansas City Chiefs (3-0) vs. LA Chargers (2-1)
September 29, 2024 4:25 pm EDT
The Line: LA Chargers +9.5; Over/Under: +39
(Get latest betting odds)
The Kansas City Chiefs and Los Angeles Chargers meet Sunday in week 4 NFL action at SoFi Stadium. Here’s a LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction. This article will include a LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick.
Kansas City Chiefs Betting Preview
The Kansas City Chiefs beat the Bengals and Falcons, and they play the Saints next. The Kansas City Chiefs look for their first 4-0 start since the 2020 season. Patrick Mahomes is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 659 yards, 5 touchdowns, and 4 interceptions. Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy have combined for 369 receiving yards and 3 touchdowns, while Travis Kelce has 8 receptions.
The Kansas City Chiefs ground game is averaging 116.3 yards per contest, and Isiah Pacheco leads the way with 135 yards and 1 touchdown. Defensively, Kansas City is allowing 20.7 points and 361 yards per game. Nick Bolton leads the Kansas City Chiefs with 22 tackles, Chris Jones has 1 sack and Chamarri Conner has 1 interception.
Los Angeles Chargers Betting Preview
The Los Angeles Chargers beat the Panthers, lost to the Steelers, and they get the Broncos next. The Los Angeles Chargers have lost 5 of their last 6 home games. Justin Herbert is completing 67.2 percent of his passes for 399 yards, 4 touchdowns, and 1 interception. Quentin Johnston and Ladd McConkey have combined for 242 receiving yards and 4 touchdowns, while Will Dissly has 7 receptions.
The Los Angeles Chargers ground game is averaging 152 yards per contest, and J.K. Dobbins leads the way with 310 yards and 2 touchdowns. Defensively, Los Angeles is allowing 11 points and 267 yards per game. Daiyan Henley leads the Los Angeles Chargers with 28 tackles, Khalil Mack has 2.5 sacks and Poona Ford has 1 interception.
Why the Kansas City Chiefs will win
- The Chiefs have won each of their last 13 games played on the West Coast.
- D.J. Chark Jr.’s team has lost each of its seven previous games with him playing against Justin Reid.
- The Chiefs have covered the spread in each of their last eight Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Chargers have failed to cover the spread in each of their last six Sunday games against teams that held a winning record.
- The Chiefs have scored the first touchdown in each of their last four Week 4 games.
- The Chargers have won the first quarter in each of their last four games as heavy underdogs (>+7.0 points).
- The Chargers have lost the first half in each of their last six games in California.
Los Angeles Chargers Player Prop Facts
- J.K. Dobbins has recorded 62+ rushing yards in each of his last five appearances against division opponents.
- J.K. Dobbins has recorded 93+ rushing and receiving yards in each of his last five appearances against division opponents.
- Hayden Hurst has recorded 27+ receiving yards in each of his four previous September home appearances against AFC opponents.
- J.K. Dobbins has scored a touchdown in four of his last five Sunday appearances.
- Justin Herbert has recorded 259+ passing yards in nine of his 10 previous appearances with the Chargers as underdogs against AFC West opponents.
- Justin Herbert has recorded 22+ completions in each of his last 11 appearances following a road loss.
- Justin Herbert has thrown three or more touchdowns in three of the Chargers’ last four September games as underdogs.
- Quentin Johnston ranks T1st in the NFL in receiving touchdowns (3) this season.
Kansas City Chiefs Player Prop Facts
- Patrick Mahomes has thrown two or more touchdowns in each of his 13 previous appearances in Sunday games played on the West Coast.
- Travis Kelce has recorded 54+ receiving yards in each of his last 12 appearances in Sunday games played on the West Coast.
- Patrick Mahomes has recorded 21+ rushing yards in seven of his last eight appearances against the Chargers.
- Patrick Mahomes has recorded 256+ passing yards in each of the Chiefs’ last nine September road games against AFC opponents.
- Samaje Perine has recorded 24+ rushing and receiving yards in 10 of his last 11 Sunday appearances with his team as a favorite.
- Travis Kelce has scored at least one touchdown in each of the Chiefs’ last six games as favorites in California.
- Patrick Mahomes has recorded 27+ completions in each of the Chiefs’ last four games as heavy favorites (>-7.0 points).
- Rashee Rice ranks 1st in the NFL in receptions (24) this season.
Matchup/League Facts
- The Chargers rank 31st in the NFL in passing yards per game (125.7) this season.
- The Chargers rank T2nd in the NFL in fumbles recovered (2) this season.
- The Chiefs rank T1st in the NFL in 4th down percentage (100.0%) this season.
- The Chiefs rank T1st in the NFL in Q3 win percentage (100.0) this season.
LA Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction
On paper, this isn’t an ideal spot for the LA Chargers. Safety Derwin James Jr. is suspended and Herbert left last week in a walking boot, so I’m not expecting him to play. That means Taylor Heinicke would start for the Chargers at quarterback. With that said, the Chargers have a long history of playing the Chiefs tough. Despite losing 8 of the last 10 games against the Chiefs, 6 of those losses were decided by 7 or fewer points. The average margin of defeat in those 8 losses in 5.87 points. The Chargers have also covered 6 straight games when an underdog of 7 or more points and one of those covers was an outright win which came against… You guessed it, the Chiefs.
Give me the Chargers and the points.
