The Houston Texans and New England Patriots clash Thursday night in a NFL Week 1 preseason game at Gillette Stadium. Let’s preview this game and give out a pick and prediction.

Houston Texans Betting Preview

The Houston Texans have won 4 or fewer games in each of their last 3 seasons, so there should be open competition across the board. The main storyline for the Texans is the quarterback battle between Davis Mills and rookie C.J. Stroud. Mills has the experience edge, obviously, and 33 career touchdown passes, but he’s also 5-19-1 as a starter. Stroud is the shiny new toy from Ohio State, as he was a back-to-back Big Ten OPOY and had 85 career touchdown passes and over 8,100 yards. The Texans need to find weapons for whoever wins the QB job, as they traded Brandin Cooks, but added Robert Woods and drafted Nathaniel Dell and Xavier Hutchinson. A pecking order needs to be decided. Defensively, the Texans need to figure out their defensive line rotation, as Jerry Hughes, Will Anderson Jr., Johnathon Greenard and Chase Winovinch are the core, but Hassan Ridgeway is coming off his best season yet with the 49ers. Still, given the Texan’s lack of success over recent years, no job should be safe. 

New England Patriots Betting Preview 

The New England Patriots should be a motivated bunch after missing the playoffs last year, and they haven’t missed the postseason back-to-back years since 1999-2000. The Pats may have a quarterback battle of their own, as Mac Jones may be the name everybody knows, but Bailey Zappe was 2-0 as a starter last year while completing 70.7 percent of his passes for 5 touchdowns and 781 yards. After two years of inconsistent play and 24 interceptions with 36 touchdowns, Jones job isn’t a lock at this point. Outside of the newly signed JuJu Smith-Schuster, the Patriots don’t have any receivers to write home about. Somebody out of a Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton, and DeVante Parker trio needs to step up. A key battle for the Patriots is at right tackle, as Riley Reiff is the grizzly veteran with a decade under his belt, but Calvin Anderson started 12 games with Denver and Conor McDermott held down the fort last year through 6 contests. The Patriots’ offense was 17th in points and 26th in yards last season, so it’s no wonder most of the training camp battles are on that side of the ball.

Trends

The Texans are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. The Patriots are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. AFC and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games overall. The under is 11-5 in Texans last 16 road games. The under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 home games. The Texans are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 meetings in New England and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. The home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

Randy’s Pick

In preseason games, I tend to lean toward the team that has the better quarterback depth because it’s the one position that can turn a game, and it’s easier to examine than the countless rotations at other positions. The Texans have the edge there, as Davis Mills is a starter capable quarterback with experience and C.J. Stroud is the flashy rookie eager to make a splash. The competition should bring the best out of both guys. Bailey Zappe and Mac Jones are both question marks and are probably back-ups until proven otherwise. I have more confidence in the Texans QB situation at the moment, so that’s where I lean in this pick em preseason game.