Sixth seed Jannik Sinner will face 12th seed Alexander Zverev in the fourth round of the 2023 US Open. The match will be played on Monday, September 4, 2023.

For the third straight year, Jannik Sinner made it to the second week of the US Open. Sinner’s consistency is now taking over at the Slams and after capturing a maiden Masters 1000 title in Canada, the young Italian is on the doorstep of a breakthrough run at Grand Slam level. Can he go all the way? First things first, Sinner knows how dangerous being complacent can be. He’s only done half the job so far, taking down Yannick Hanfmann and Lorenzo Sonego in straight sets. He was stretched to four sets against three-time major champion Stan Wawrinka in the third round. He overcame a modest serving performance in the second set, and finished the match very strongly, hammering 33 winners including 12 aces. But of concern, was a whopping 61 unforced errors.

Alexander Zverev came through a rollercoaster against former World No. 3 Grigor Dimitov, with the pair playing out two high-quality and intense sets before Zverev ran away with the match. The first two sets took a lot of juice off Dimitrov’s legs and the Bulgarian was moving with less spring in the third set and his serve malfunctioned in sets 3 and 4. Zverev, by contrast, had his best serving performance, serving 15 aces to just one double fault and recorded 43 winners to 27 unforced errors. 

Alexander Zverev leads the head-to-head 3-1 and won their only hard-court meeting, incidentally, at the 2021 US Open in straight sets. It is worth noting that Sinner’s only victory in the series also came at Grand Slam level, doing so at the 2020 French Open fourth round. Now coming into this match as the higher-ranked player, the Italian is rightly the favorite here, but I don’t think his raw power is going to be an issue for Zverev who is also one of the most offensively-minded players on Tour. The German will look to give everything at his return. It will be a compelling arm wrestle at times with both players fighting fire with fire. Zverev has been steadily getting back to his 2022 level and he’s snuck under the radar at this tournament. He’ll surprise many people here. We recommend taking the sets spread – backing both players to win a set at -182, but if you’re looking for a bigger value, we think the German’s solid baseline game will prove to be a mountain to climb for the power-hitting Italian at +133.