Alex Pereira vs Israel Adesanya Pick – UFC 287 Predictions & Odds 4/8/23

Israel Adesanya and Alex Pereira fight Saturday in UFC 287 at the Kaseya Center. Adesanya enters this fight with a 23-2 record and has won 65 percent of his fights by knockout. Pereira enters this fight with a 7-1 record and has won 86 percent of his fights by knockout.

Adesanya has won 7 of his last 9 fights, and he’s coming off a November loss to Alex Pereira. Adesanya is averaging 3.93 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. He is averaging 0.06 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 14 percent. Adesanya is coming off a fifth round knockout loss where he landed 119 total strikes and 53 percent of his significant strikes. Adesanya has seen the fifth round in each of his last 5 fights, and he now looks to avoid back to back losses for the first time in his career. This is also the first time Adesanya has been finished, so it will be interesting to see how he responds. Adesanya is simply an athletic freak who comes from a kickboxing and boxing background and is as crafty and creative as they come. He is long, rangy with an 80-inch reach, mixes in his leg kicks well and has an unorthodox stance. It’s hard to predict what Adesanya is going to do next, making him a very dangerous fighter. As he approaches 34 years old, Adesanya is still one of the best in the sport regardless of weight class. This will be Adesanya’s first career fight in Miami.

Pereira has won 7 straight fights and is coming off a November win over Adesanya. Pereira is averaging 5.23 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 59 percent. Pereira is averaging 0.33 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 100 percent. Pereira is coming off a second straight knockout win, where he landed 140 total strikes and 57 percent of his significant strikes. Pereira is now 4-0 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost since his pro debut in 2015. Pereira is approaching 36 years old, comes from a deep kickboxing and boxing background, and has shown he can get the job done in MMA despite the late start. Pereira has just 5 MMA fights since 2016 and 3 of those bouts were knockouts. A creative striker who is a black belt in kickboxing, Pereira is dangerous on his feet and has a good takedown defense as well. It’s rather impressive to see Pereira adapt to new rules under such a short time, and that win at UFC 281 has put this league on notice. This will be Pereira’s first career fight in Miami.

It’s hard to turn down the plus money with Pereira, as he’s now beaten Adesanya 3 times when you include 2 kickboxing matches. Still, Adesanya is still the more proven, complete fighter and his fighting IQ has me believing he can make the proper adjustments to finally get over this hump. You also don’t get Adesanya at prices this cheap often. I’m still on the Adesanya bandwagon.

I’ll lay the cheap price with Adesanya.