Jailton Almeida vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik Pick – UFC on ABC 4 Predictions & Odds 5/13/23

Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Jailton Almeida fight Saturday in UFC on ABC 4 at the Spectrum Center. Rozenstruik enters this fight with a 13-4 record and has won 92 percent of his fights by knockout. Almeida enters this fight with a 18-2 record and has won 61 percent of his fights by submission.

Rozenstruik has split his last 8 fights, and he’s coming off a December win over Chris Daukaus. Rozenstruik is averaging 2.93 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Rozenstruik is averaging 0 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Rozenstruik is coming off a knockout win at UFC 282 where he landed 12 total strikes and earned performance of the night. The fight lasted just 23 seconds, and Rozenstruik now looks for back to back wins for the first time since 2019. Rozenstruik is now 7-4 under the UFC banner, and his last two wins have earned performance bonuses. Rozenstruik is an established fighter at 35 years old who comes from a boxing and kickboxing background, and he has obvious clear KO power in either hand. Rozenstruik is the most comfortable standing up, as he was highly successful at kickboxing with a 76-8 record, and he throws these hooks that are downright scary with a 78-inch reach. There are no surprises with Rozenstruik, as he’s shown little in terms of clinch work or on the ground. It’s all stand and bang with Rozenstruik, and it’s led to 12 of his 13 wins being knockouts. This will be Rozenstruik’s first career fight in North Carolina.

Almeida has won his last 13 fights, and he’s coming off a January win over Shamil Abdurakhimov. Almeida is averaging 4.19 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 64 percent. Almeida is averaging 6.73 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 70 percent. Almeida is coming off a knockout win at UFC 283 where he landed 89 total strikes and produced 3 takedowns. The victory earned performance of the night honors. Almeida is now 5-0 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost a fight since Shooto Brazil 80 back in 2018. Almeida is a black belt in BJJ and most comfortable on the canvas, where he’s produced 11 career submissions. Almeida has shown incredible takedown ability, but he’s also done enough on the feet that allows him to close the distance and go to work. Almeida has terrific ground and pound and has 7 career knockouts, so he’s a little more than grappling and wrestling. Almeida has seen just 1 of his 20 fights end in a decision, which was his last loss, more than 5 years ago. This will be Almeida’s first career fight in North Carolina.

Almeida is the more balanced fighter who has a clear edge if he gets this fight where he wants it. There’s no surprise he’s favored, and I’ve said many times previously that Rozenstruik is overrated. With all that said, we’re getting 4 times our money with Rozenstruik, a guy who has one punch KO power. Rozenstruik doesn’t have to be perfect, he just needs to land one shot and this bout is finished. There’s some beauty in getting knockout artists and big plus money.

Again, Almeida should win and is the more complete fighter, but the value of the betting odds is with Rozenstruik and the massive plus money.