Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen Pick – UFC on ESPN 44 Predictions & Odds 4/15/23

Max Holloway and Arnold Allen fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 44 at the T-Mobile Center. Holloway enters this fight with a 23-7 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by decision. Allen enters this fight with a 19-1 record and has won 42 percent of his fights by decision.

Holloway has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a July loss to Alexander Volkanovski. Holloway is averaging 7.24 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Holloway is averaging 0.29 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Holloway is coming off a decision loss at UFC 276 where he landed 161 total strikes and ate 204 total strikes. Holloway has lost 4 of his last 7 fights, and each of his last 7 fights have gone the distance. While just 31 years old, Holloway has been in some wars, and you have to question how much time he has left as an elite fighter. Holloway is one of the most well conditioned fighters in the sport who is usually effective throughout 5 rounds and gets stronger the fight goes. He’s seen 17 of his 30 bouts end in decisions. Holloway hides his shots well and has a wide variety of attacks in his tool box, as he can be a bit unpredictable and throws kicks or elbows out of nowhere. One of the best strikers in the history of the sport and a brown belt in BJJ, Holloway trusts his boxing against anyone. This will be Holloway’s ninth career fight in Nevada.

Allen has won each of his last 12 fights and is coming off an October win over Calvin Kattar. Allen is averaging 3.40 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Allen is averaging 1.35 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Allen is coming off a knockout win at UFC Fight Night 213 where he landed 28 total strikes. Allen has 7 career knockouts, and he is now 10-0 under the UFC banner. Allen has seen 4 of his last 6 fights end in decisions. Allen is a balanced fighter with a background in kickboxing and wrestling, and he’s a purple belt in BJJ. Allen has some underrated pop in his strikes, and all 4 of his submission victories have come by different techniques. This will be Allen’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

It’s hard to turn down Allen and the plus money given this run he’s been on, but this is a bout that can kind of right the ship for Holloway. He’s in a bit of a funk right now and some are questioning if he’s the same fighter given the punishment he’s taken over the years. Holloway is the bigger fighter, the more accurate striker, and he should get a striking style fight where he’s most comfortable. You also don’t get Holloway at this small of a favorite, as Calvin Kattar is the only recent time.

Give me Holloway and the cheap price.