Tanner Boser vs Ion Cutelaba Pick – UFC on ESPN 44 Predictions & Odds 4/15/23

Ion Cutelaba and Tanner Boser fight Saturday in UFC on ESPN 44 at the T-Mobile Center. Cutelaba enters this fight with a 16-9 record and has won 75 percent of his fights by knockout. Boser enters this fight with a 20-9-1 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by knockout.

Cutelaba has lost 3 of his last 4 fights and is coming off a November loss to Kennedy Nzechukwu. Cutelaba is averaging 4.43 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Cutelaba is averaging 4.70 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Cutelaba is coming off a knockout loss at UFC Fight Night 215 where he landed 30 total strikes and ate 24 total strikes. The Hulk now looks for his first win since UFC Fight Night 192. Cutelaba comes from a wrestling background while also having experience in Sambo and Judo, but he’s most known for his standup striking. Cutelaba has impressive power and one punch knockout potential, and 12 of his 16 career victories have come by knockout. Cutelaba throws nothing but heavy strikes. The issue with Cutelaba is that his conditioning fades rather quickly, and he’s 1-3-1 in his last 5 fights that have made it out of the first round. This will be Cutelaba’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

Boser has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a September loss to Rodrigo Nascimento. He is averaging 4.21 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Boser is averaging 0.00 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Boser is coming off a decision loss at UFC Fight Night 210 where he landed 163 total strikes and ate 91 total strikes. A controversial decision, but Boser has now lost 3 of his last 4 fights and each of his last 4 fights that have gone the distance. The Bulldozer is a black belt in Shitō-ryū and a purple belt in BJJ. Boser relies on his cardio, hand speed and leg kicks. He works the legs well, and 4 of his last 5 wins have been knockouts. Boser has quickness for this division and has never lost via submission. Boser grew up studying karate, so leg kicks and footwork are a big part of his game. This will be Boser’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Cutelaba probably should be favored, but this recent stretch from him hasn’t been all that encouraging. Boser has been on the wrong side of some tough decisions, he’s the more accurate striker of the two, the bigger fighter and has enough takedown defense to keep this bout where he wants it. Toss up fight, but I’m going to side with Boser and the minor upset.