UFC 269: Julianna Pena vs Amanda Nunes Picks, Predictions, Odds

Amanda Nunes and Julianna Pena fight Saturday in UFC 269 at the T-Mobile Arena. Nunes enters this fight with a 21-4 record and has won 62 percent of her fights by knockout. Pena enters this fight with a 10-4 record and has won 40 percent of her fights by submission.

Nunes has won her last 12 fights and is coming off a March win over Megan Anderson. Nunes is averaging 4.50 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Nunes is averaging 2.50 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Nunes is coming off a submission win at UFC 259 where she landed 19 total strikes and only ate two total strikes. Nunes has now produced finishes in four of her last six fights, and still hasn’t lost a fight since UFC 178. Nunes is an accurate striker who cuts off the octagon and can land bombs when she has her opponent on her heels. Nunes is also a black belt in BJJ and is effective when she looks for takedowns. Nunes is as balanced as anybody in the sport, with a high IQ and ability to end the fight on her terms while getting the fight she wants. Nunes hasn’t lost a fight in over seven years, producing one of the best stretches we’ve seen in the history of the UFC. This will be Nunes’ ninth career fight in Nevada.

Pena has won six of her eight fights and is coming off a January win over Sara McMann. Pena is averaging 2.80 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Pena is averaging 2.49 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Pena is coming off a submission win at UFC 257 where she landed 140 total strikes and produced one takedown. Pena is now 6-2 under the UFC banner and will fight for the first time in the same year for the first time since 2015. Pena comes from a background in kickboxing and BJJ, and she’s been a rather accurate striker in the UFC. However, Pena can be a bit sloppy with her striking on her feet, as she has this windmill style, and it leaves herself open to counters against decent competition. Pena is a successful takedown artist, and it’s where she does some of her best work. This will be Pena’s third career fight in Nevada.

Pena isn’t a pushover, and her high takedown percentage and ground game gives her a chance to make things interesting. However, other than that, there’s no reason to bet against Nunes here. Nunes is comfortably the better, more accurate striker, and there’s nothing she hasn’t seen in terms of grappling. Nunes has a high takedown defensive percentage and rarely gets put in a scary position. It’s tough seeing Pena really give Nunes a run for her money.

Give me Nunes by finish to shave down the price.