UFC 271: Marcelo Rojo vs Kyler Phillips Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kyler Phillips and Marcelo Rojo fight Saturday in UFC 271 at the Toyota Center. Phillips enters this fight with a 9-2 record and has won 56 percent of his fights by knockout. Rojo enters this fight with a 16-7 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout.

Phillips has won five of his last six fights and is coming off a February win over Gabriel Silva. Phillips is averaging 5.20 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Phillips is averaging 3.20 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Phillips is coming off a loss to Raulian Paiva at UFC Vegas 32, giving him his first UFC loss and dropping him to 4-1 under the banner. Phillips looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Phillips comes from a wrestling background and has experience in BJJ and Judo, and he’s very light on his feet and usually dictates the pace of a fight. Phillips moves a ton in the octagon, mixes in his kicks well and while he doesn’t have a ton of power, he is a volume striker and typically overwhelms his opponent. Phillips is a fast starter who has produced six career finishes, five of six coming in the first round. This will be Phillips’ first career fight in Texas.

Rojo has split his last six fights and is coming off a March loss to Charles Jourdain. Rojo is averaging 5.10 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Rojo is averaging 1.03 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Rojo is coming off a knockout loss at UFC Vegas 21 where he landed 80 total strikes and ate 128 total strikes. It was Rojo’s first knockout loss and the fifth time in his career he’s been finished. Rojo is an exciting, aggressive fighter who always comes forward, lets his hands go and will throw in kicks as well. Rojo has eight knockouts on his resume and has finished 14 of his 16 victories overall. Rojo has decent grappling ability and great cardio, but his takedown defense and wrestling leaves a lot to be desired. Win, lose or draw, Rojo is going to put on a show and has an unreal finishing rate.

Rojo in the big underdog role has some value given his finish ability and his raw striking power. I wouldn’t be mad if trying to take a shot in the dark here. With that said, Phillips is far and away more battle tested, proven, more accurate on the feet and has more trustworthy grappling ability. Phillips is the safe bet, and I’ll side with him in decision to shave down the ML price.