UFC 272: Alex Oliveira vs Kevin Holland Picks, Predictions, Odds

Kevin Holland and Alex Oliveira fight Saturday in UFC 272 at the T-Mobile Arena. Holland enters this fight with a 21-7 record and has won 57 percent of his fights by knockout. Oliveira enters this fight with a 22-11-1 record and has won 55 percent of his fights by knockout.

Holland has split his last six fights and is coming off an October no contest against Kyle Daukaus. Holland is averaging 3.67 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Holland is averaging 0.90 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Holland saw his bout at UFC Fight Night 193 end early due to an accidental clash of heads that knocked him unconscious. Holland was the busier fighter up to that point, and he still looks for his first win since UFC 256. Holland is a lengthy, athletic fighter with an 81-inch reach and impressive stand-up ability. He’s light on his feet, constantly moving and not giving his opponent an easy target. Holland has a boxing background with quick hands, good footwork and 12 career knockouts. Holland has produced knockouts in three of his last four victories. A black belt in Kung Fu and BJJ, Holland closes the distance well to land that big shot, and he’s gotten a lot more comfortable on the canvas over the years. Because of his length, Holland can really make life difficult for his opponent once on the ground, and he has five career submission victories. Five of Holland’s seven career losses have come by decision. This will be Holland’s ninth career fight in Nevada.

Oliveira has lost six of his last eight fights and is coming off an October loss to Niko Price. Oliveira is averaging 2.97 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 51 percent. Oliveira is averaging 2.27 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. Oliveira is coming off a decision loss at UFC Fight Night 193 where he landed 83 total strikes and ate 108 total strikes. Oliveira has now lost three straight bouts and looks for his first win since UFC on ESPN 14. Oliveira is a powerful striker with a kickboxing background and a dark blue belt in Muay Thai and a blue belt in BJJ. Oliveira puts a lot into his shots, but he’s also a terrific submission artist who works the back quickly and has produced submissions in five career victories. Oliveira is a tough dude who worked construction and was a bull rider before training for MMA, and he brings that working man attitude each time to the octagon. This will be Oliveira’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

It’s tough to back Oliveira with any confidence, as he’s simply in rough form and hasn’t looked great in the majority of his last 10 fights. Say what you want about Holland, but he’s the bigger, stronger fighter of the two who also has a five-inch reach advantage and is sharper with his strikes. Oliveira would have an edge if he can get this fight on the ground, but he’s going to have to walk through some shots. Holland should be able to land something in the earlier rounds to really tilt this fight in his favor.

Give me Holland by a finish to shave down the ML price.