UFC 272: Greg Hardy vs Sergey Spivak Picks, Predictions, Odds

Sergey Spivak and Greg Hardy fight Saturday in UFC 272 at the T-Mobile Arena. Spivak enters this fight with a 13-3 record and has won 46 percent of his fights by submission. Hardy enters this fight with a 7-4-1 record and has won 86 percent of his fights by knockout.

Spivak has won seven of his last 10 fights and is coming off a September loss to Tom Aspinall. He is averaging 3.71 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Spivak is averaging 2.72 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Spivak is coming off a one-sided knockout loss at UFC Fight Night 191 where he didn’t land a single strike and ate 16 shots. It was the second time Spivak has been knocked out, and he now looks to avoid two straight losses for the first time. Spivak is an aggressive fighter standing up, as he throws bombs and looks to close the distance. He gets in the clinch, throws heavy knees, and he’s even better on the canvas. Spivak has a strong ground and pound and does have six career submission victories. Spivak has never been submitted in his career. Polar Bear is a balanced heavyweight who has finished 11 of his 13 victories. At 27 years old, Spivak is 4-3 under the UFC banner. This will be Spivak’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

Hardy has split his last eight fights and is coming off a July loss to Tai Tuivasa. Hardy is averaging 4.84 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Hardy is averaging 0.20 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Hardy is coming off a knockout loss at UFC 264 where he landed six total strikes and ate 11 total strikes. Hardy has been knocked out in his last two fights and has some showing and proving to do to bounce back. Hardy looks for his first win since UFC Fight Night 181. Hardy is an impressive athlete and has clear power in his hands that gives him a punchers chance against anybody, and he’s come along quickly in a few years. Hardy has gotten his conditioning up since when he first started fighting, and he has more versatility with his striking ability, as he mixes in knees and leg kicks along with his strong overhand. Hardy still has to improve in the clinch and show some sort of ground game if he’s going to take that next step, but he’s been coming along and has made great strides under American Top Team. However, his last two fights show Hardy has a long way to go before he can truly hang with the big boys. This will be Hardy’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Hardy has come along well for a guy who went from football to fighting, but he has a lot to improve before he can be taken seriously against balanced, seasoned fighters. Spivak is far and away the more trustworthy fighter of the two, and he has a clear edge in the clinch or on the canvas. Spivak should be able to drag Hardy into the deep waters and get the job done in likely ugly fashion.

I’ll lay the juice with Spivak and likely parlay it with other bets.