UFC 272: Jorge Masvidal vs Colby Covington Picks, Predictions, Odds

Colby Covington and Jorge Masvidal fight Saturday in UFC 272 at the T-Mobile Arena. Covington enters this fight with a 16-3 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision. Masvidal enters this fight with a 35-15 record and has won 49 percent of his fights by decision.

Covington has won six of his last eight fights and is coming off a November loss to Kamaru Usman. Covington is averaging 4.14 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 38 percent. Covington is averaging 4.10 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Covington is coming off a decision loss at UFC 268 where he landed 119 total strikes and ate 158 total strikes. The fight was competitive throughout, and Covington now looks to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Covington comes from a wrestling background, and he has an impressive gas tank to go along with high-level grappling and five submission victories on his resume. However, Covington is also a tricky southpaw with a relentless work rate and some serious pop in his hands. While five of his last six victories have ended in decisions, Covington has shown he can trade standing up and throw the wrestling out the window. At 34 years old, Covington is a balanced fighter and one of the top welterweights on the planet. This will be Covington’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Masvidal has split his last eight fights and is coming off an April loss to Kamaru Usman. Masvidal is averaging 4.22 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Masvidal is averaging 1.54 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 59 percent. Masvidal is coming off a knockout loss at UFC 261 where he landed 56 total strikes and ate 32 total strikes while getting taken down twice. Masvidal has been knocked out now twice in his career and looks for his first win since UFC 244. Masvidal has never lost three straight fights in his career. Masvidal is a striker at heart with a boxing background, and he fought in backyards before he turned pro. Masvidal has very good footwork, has become a lot more patient when he attacks and has good variety to his strikes, gaining more creativity with experience. Masvidal is most known for his stand-up, but he’s also had great success with takedowns under the UFC banner and does have a wrestling history as well as submission grappling. Masvidal also has great cardio, but at 37 years old, its important he wins a fight like this to keep his name up there with the stars. This will be Masvidal’s sixth career fight in Nevada.

Covington is the more balanced fighter with a ridiculous gas tank and an edge on the ground, so it’s no secret why he’s a considerable favorite here. However, this is likely going to be a stand and bang fight when you consider it’s a personal bout between two guys who don’t like each other. Say what you want about Masvidal, but he has a chance against anybody on the feet, and he also has the reach edge here by two inches. Covington is the safer bet, but if you’re looking for a potential live dog, I’ll take my chances with Masvidal and the plus money.