UFC 272: Renato Moicano vs Rafael dos Anjos Picks, Predictions, Odds

Rafael dos Anjos and Renato Moicano fight Saturday in UFC 272 at the T-Mobile Arena. dos Anjos enters this fight with a 30-13 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision. Moicano enters this fight with a 16-4-1 record and has won 56 percent of his fights by submission.

dos Anjos has split his last 10 fights and is coming off a November (2020) win over Paul Felder. dos Anjos is averaging 3.49 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. dos Anjos is averaging 1.93 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 37 percent. dos Anjos is coming off a decision win at UFC Fight Night 182 where he landed 134 total strikes and 51 percent of his significant strikes. He earned fight of the night honors, and dos Anjos has seen six of his last seven fights end in decision. dos Anjos is one of the more polished strikers within the division, as he mixes in his punches and kicks well, and he packs a serious ground and pound on the canvas. With a polished boxing approach and a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu, dos Anjos can hold his own wherever the fight goes, but he’s much more effective on his feet. dos Anjos does have a pressure style to his game, and he has 10 career submission wins. dos Anjos has never been submitted despite 13 career losses. This will be dos Anjos’ sixth career fight in Nevada.

Moicano has split his last six fights and is coming off a February win over Alexander Hernandez. Moicano is averaging 5.12 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Moicano is averaging 2.14 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 53 percent. Moicano is coming off a submission win at UFC 271 where he landed 38 total strikes and produced two takedowns. Moicano is now 8-4 under the UFC banner and will fight for the second time in less than a month. Moicano is an athletic fighter who has displayed good accuracy in his strikes and does some of his best work standing up. However, Moicano is most known for his ground game, as he’s aggressive and accurate with his takedowns, and all 16 of his wins have come by decision or submission. A black belt in BJJ and May Thai, Moicano is built for the long game and is well conditioned to be effective when most fighters are sucking wind. Moicano is a slippery, lengthy fighter who is hard to get comfortable against and has never lost a decision. This will be Moicano’s third career fight in Nevada.

There’s some value here with Moicano and the plus money given he’s the younger, more energetic fighter, but it’s tough taking a fight on short notice, and we’ve seen a lot of guys struggle in these spots. Heck, look at Bobby Green last week. dos Anjos hasn’t fought in a while, but maybe that’s good given his age, and he’s probably the more balanced fighter of the two given his striking ability.

Interesting bout, but I lean toward dos Anjos here.