UFC 273: Khamzat Chimaev vs Gilbert Burns Picks, Predictions, Odds

Gilbert Burns and Khamzat Chimaev fight Saturday in UFC 273 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Burns enters this fight with a 20-4 record and has won 40 percent of his fights by submission. Chimaev enters this fight with a 10-0 record and has won 60 percent of his fights by knockout.

Burns has won seven of his last eight fights and is coming off a July win over Stephen Thompson. Burns is averaging 3.12 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Burns is averaging 2.16 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Burns is coming off a decision win at UFC 264 where he landed 101 total strikes and produced three takedowns. Burns has now won five straight decisions and has also won six of eight decisions for his career. Burns has a decorated grappling background with plenty of experience in wrestling, and he’s a third degree black belt in BJJ. Burns is quick to find a submission hold once he gets the bout to the canvas and few have his grappling credentials, but he’s also decent on his feet with some pop in his hands and a come forward style. Burns doesn’t look as uncomfortable standing up as many guys with his background do, and he has six knockouts on his resume. At 35 years old, Burns has really come along these last few years and has improved his resume greatly. This will be Burns’ second career fight in Florida.

This will be Chimaev’s fifth fight since 2020 and is coming off an October win over Li Jingliang. Chimaev is averaging 8.68 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 77 percent. Chimaev is averaging 4.65 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 66 percent. Chimaev is coming off a submission win at UFC 267 where he didn’t eat a single strike while giving out 58 total strikes. The bout earned performance of the night honors, the fourth straight fight Chimaev has earned the bonus. Chimaev has also taken a combined two total strikes in his last four fights, which is simply unreal. Chimaev has a background in wrestling and usually keeps his opponent on the ground once he gets it there, always fighting for position and changing guard. Chimaev can be a bit sloppy with the standup, but he has power in his hands and usually swings with a purpose while producing six knockouts. Chimaev has never seen a fight make it out of the second round through 10 pro fights. This will be Chimaev’s third career fight in Florida.

I strongly considered Burns in the big underdog role, as he has the grappling and BJJ background to hang with Chimaev on the canvas. He also has the power in his hands to catch Chimaev with something on the feet. However, it’s just too damn hard to bet against Chimaev with how he’s looked over the years. He’s shown no chinks in the armor, and his striking has improved as well. Until he gives us a reason to bet against him, I have to keep siding with Chimaev.

Give me Chimaev by knockout to shave down the ML price.