UFC 273: Mark Madsen vs Vinc Pichel Picks, Predictions, Odds

Vinc Pichel and Mark Madsen fight Saturday in UFC 273 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Pichel enters this fight with a 14-2 record and has won 57 percent of his fights by knockout. Madsen enters this fight with a 11-0 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by decision.

Pichel has won seven of his last eight fights and is coming off an August win over Austin Hubbard. Pichel is averaging 3.42 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 45 percent. Pichel is averaging 3.29 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 54 percent. Pichel is coming off a decision win at UFC on ESPN 29 where he landed 96 total strikes and 44 percent of his significant strikes. Pichel is now a perfect 6-0 in decisions, and he’s riding a three fight winning streak. Pichel is a crafty fighter who is a striker at heart, mixes in his kicks well and usually closes the distance where he can land knees and produce a takedown. Pichel has had great success with takedowns on the UFC level, but he has yet to win a fight by submission and usually turns to ground and pound once on the canvas. Pichel also has shown in the past to have one-punch knockout potential, so he’s just as dangerous on his feet. Pichel is a black belt in BJJ and an orthodox striker. This will be Pichel’s first career fight in Florida.

This will be Madsen’s third fight since 2020, and he is coming off an August win over Clay Guida. Madsen is averaging 4.33 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Madsen is averaging 4.33 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 60 percent. Madsen is coming off a split decision win at UFC on ESPN 29 where he landed 101 total strikes and 51 percent of his significant strikes. Madsen has seen five of his last seven fights end in decision, and he’s 3-0 under the UFC banner. Madsen is a wrestler at heart who has an extensive amateur career with medals in countless events, which includes a silver medal in the 2016 Olympics. Madsen is highly successful with his takedowns and knows how to keep his opponent on the canvas once he gets it there. However, Madsen has also shown he can hold his own on his feet, as he’s been accurate with his strikes, he’s fresh off a fight where he landed 100-plus total strikes, and he had a one punch KO in his fourth pro fight. At 37 years old, Madsen needs to keep winning in order to have enough time to leave a mark on this level. This will be Madsen’s first career fight in Florida.

Pichel has the pop to end this fight, and he’s the bigger fighter of the two, so I understand why he has a slight edge in terms of odds. However, Madsen is a decorated wrestler who would have the edge in the clinch, and he’s also proven to be an accurate striker who can survive on the feet if needed. While the quality of opponents could be better, Madsen has shown us enough to believe he can keep this train rolling. After all, Madsen has yet to leave the cage with a loss.

I’ll take a shot with Madsen and the cheaper price.