UFC 273: Petr Yan vs Aljamain Sterling Picks, Predictions, Odds

Aljamain Sterling and Petr Yan fight Saturday in UFC 273 at the VyStar Veterans Memorial Arena. Sterling enters this fight with a 20-3 record and has won 45 percent of his fights by decision. Yan enters this fight with a 16-2 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision.

Sterling has won each of his last six fights and is coming off a March (2021) win over Petr Yan. Sterling is averaging 4.84 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Sterling is averaging 1.77 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 24 percent. Sterling is coming off a DQ victory at UFC 259 after Yan landed an illegal knee. A win is a win, and you can’t take the Bantamweight Championship away from him, but Sterling was losing that fight on the scorecards if we’re being honest. Still, Sterling hasn’t lost a fight since UFC Fight Night 123 back in late 2017. Sterling is an accurate striker with an impressive work rate, and he’s a black belt in BJJ. Sterling has a background in Division III wrestling, and he’s never been submitted, while he has eight career submissions of his own. Sterling has become a really balanced fighter, and he has a chance to really stamp his name in this sport as he approaches 33 years old. This will be Sterling’s first career fight in Florida.

Yan has won 11 of his last 12 fights and is coming off an October win over Cory Sandhagen. Yan is averaging 5.98 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Yan is averaging 1.75 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 61 percent. Yan is coming off a decision win at UFC 267 where he landed 158 total strikes and 55 percent of his significant strikes. The bout earned fight of the night honors, and Yan has now won eight of his nine career decisions. Yan is your typical tough Russian who has a strong chin and is willing to trade strikes, as he’s walked down all of his opponents up to this point. Yan grew up fighting in the streets and comes from a deep boxing background that he picked up from his brother. That’s been Yan’s fighting style throughout his career, as he keeps his hands up, comes forward and follows up his jab with a strong right hand. Yan also has a dangerous elbow that he likes to throw in the clinch, and he’ll mix in a leg kick once in a while. Yan has arguably the best standup in this division, and he loves his chances as long as he avoids the canvas. This will be Yan’s first career fight in Florida.

Sterling has come along these last few years, and you can’t just overlook him here, but he’s not the quality of fighter that Yan is, and he was getting beat up in the previous bout until the illegal knee. Yan is just too crafty on the feet, as he switches stances with ease and can get in and out with the best of them. We also can’t ignore the possible bad blood between these guys given the controversial decision, and that could lead to Yan wanting to put things away.

I’ll side with Yan by knockout here to turn juice into plus money.