UFC 275: Andre Fialho vs Jake Matthews Picks, Predictions, Odds

Jake Matthews and Andre Fialho fight Saturday in UFC 275 at Singapore Indoor Stadium. Matthews enters this fight with a 17-5 record and has won 41 percent of his fights by submission. Fialho enters this fight with a 16-4 record and has won 81 percent of his fights by knockout. 

Matthews has won 6 of his last 8 fights and is coming off a March (2021) loss to Sean Brady. Matthews is averaging 3.03 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Matthews is averaging 1.93 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Matthews is coming off a submission loss at UFC 259 where he landed 32 total strikes and ate 133 total strikes. It was the third time Matthews has been submitted in his career, and he now looks to avoid two straight losses for the first time since 2016. Matthews is now 10-5 under the UFC banner. Matthews is a tough Australian with a black belt in BJJ, and 7 of his 17 career victories have ended in submission. Matthews is a lengthy fighter with a 73-inch reach who is very creative on the canvas in terms of changing positions, and he’s executed the triangle choke twice in his career. Matthews has also been highly effective with his takedowns and has great ground and pound once he gains top position. At 27 years old, now is the time for Matthews to start hitting his stride and make a move up the rankings. This will be Matthews’ second career fight in Singapore.

Fialho has won 6 of his last 7 fights and is coming off a May win over Cameron VanCamp. Fialho is averaging 4.23 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Fialho is averaging 0 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 0 percent. Fialho is coming off a knockout win at UFC 274 that earned performance of the night. Fialho has earned such bonuses in his last two fights. Fialho is now 2-1 under the UFC banner and will fight for the fourth time this year. Fialho is a powerful Portuguese fighter who has produced 13 knockouts and comes from a technical boxing background. Fialho has produced knockouts in each of his last six wins, and what he did last month was rather impressive. Fialho likes to push the pace on the feet, and he swings for the fences when he does throw something. Of course, the concern with Fialho is his conditioning, as he’s failed to win 4 of his last 5 fights that made it out of the first round. Fialho has never been submitted in his career. This will be Fialho’s first career fight in Singapore.

It’s easy to see why Fialho is the favorite here as he’s been on a roll this year with three wins already, and he has a chance to put his name in the hat for fighter of the year if he can get the job done here. Fialho and his power is scary and tough to bet against. However, you have to wonder if Fialho is taking on too much too quickly. Also, Matthews has far from a pushover, and he has more to his game in terms of clinching and takedown ability. As long as Matthews avoids the devastating power shot, he can close the distance and drag Fialho into the deep end of the pool. Matthews is a live dog here if he can get his hands on the powerful Fialho.

Give me the upset.