UFC 275: Taila Santos vs Valentina Shevchenko Picks, Predictions, Odds

Valentina Shevchenko and Taila Santos fight Saturday in UFC 275 at Singapore Indoor Stadium. Shevchenko enters this fight with a 22-3 record and has won 36 percent of her fights by knockout. Santos enters this fight with a 19-1 record and has won 53 percent of her fights by knockout.

Shevchenko has won 8 straight fights and is coming off a September win over Lauren Murphy. Shevchenko is averaging 3.21 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 52 percent. Shevchenko is averaging 2.62 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 64 percent. Shevchenko is coming off a knockout win at UFC 266 where she landed 132 total strikes and produced three takedowns. Shevchenko now has 4 knockouts in her last 6 wins, and 4 of her last 9 wins have been decided in the second round. Shevchenko hasn’t lost a fight in nearly 5 years. Shevchenko is arguably the most efficient striker on the women’s side, as she’s highly accurate with her attempts and has good variety thanks to her background in kickboxing and Muay Thai. Shevchenko has an impressive work rate and can overwhelm her opponent once she gets comfortable. Shevchenko is very effective with counters and knows how to close distance well that set up those leg kicks nicely. While her stand up striking is probably where she’s most comfortable, Shevchenko has seven career submissions and a black belt in Judo, so don’t sleep on her grappling and ground game. At 34 years old, Shevchenko is running out of legit competition to truly threaten her title. This will be Shevchenko’s first career fight in Singapore.

Santos has won 4 straight fights and is coming off a November win over Joanne Wood. Santos is averaging 3.71 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Santos is averaging 2.44 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 86 percent. Santos is coming off a submission win at UFC on ESPN+ 56 where she landed 36 total strikes and 50 percent of her significant strikes. The fight earned performance of the night and Santos is now 5-1 under the UFC banner. Santos has a brawler feel to her fighting style, as she throws heavy hands with legit knockout power, she’ll mix in some kicks here and there and some of her fights have ended in brutal finishes. Three of Santos’ last four victories have ended in decision, but she has 10 career knockouts. Santos has some wrestling ability and now has won 3 fights by submission, but she’s most comfortable on the feet where she can push the pace and let her hands go. Santos also has good stamina that’s helped her win 6 of her 7 career decisions. This will be Santos’ first career fight in Singapore.

Santos is on a nice little stretch, and she has some striking power to go with above average takedown defense and takedown accuracy. Santos’ deserves a shot, but this is a massive step-up in competition to what she’s used to, and I just don’t believe she’s on that level. Shevchenko has comfortably proven she’s the best in the world, and she hasn’t really been pushed in recent fights. I’m just not stepping in front of Shevchenko until I see some chinks in the armor.

Give me Shevchenko, and I’ll take her by finish to shave down the price.