UFC 276: Donald Cerrone vs Jim Miller Picks, Predictions, Odds

Jim Miller and Donald Cerrone fight Saturday in UFC 276 at T-Mobile Arena. Miller enters this fight with a 34-16 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by submission. Cerrone enters this fight with a 36-16 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by submission.

Miller has split his last 6 fights and is coming off a February win over Nikolas Motta. Miller is averaging 2.78 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 41 percent. Miller is averaging 1.61 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Miller is coming off a knockout win at UFC Fight Night 201 where he landed 49 total strikes. Miller has now produced back to back knockout wins and has a chance to win 3 straight fights for the first time since 2016. At nearly 39 years old, Miller is pretty much who he is at this point. Great cardio and wrestling, as Miller simply wears on his opponent and does most of his damage on the ground. Out of 34 career wins, 28 of them have come by either submission or decision, and he’s only been submitted 3 times in his career. A black belt in BJJ, Miller is simply at his best when in the clinch or on the ground, but his last 2 bouts show he can still bang if given the chance. This will be Miller’s 14th career fight in Nevada.

Cerrone has split his last 22 fights and is coming off a May (2021) loss to Alex Morono. Cerrone is averaging 4.43 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 46 percent. Cerrone is averaging 1.18 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 33 percent. Cerrone is coming off a knockout loss at UFC on ESPN 24 where he landed 18 total strikes and ate 41 total strikes. Cerrone hasn’t won a fight since UFC Fight Night 151, and it’s fair to question if this is the end of Cowboy now that he’s 39 years old. In fact, Cerrone has mentioned he’ll retire after two more fights, so we’ll see. When in good form, Cerrone is a versatile fighter who is a well decorated kick boxer, has a deep background in Muay Thai and is comfortable on the canvas to the point he has 17 career submission victories. A polished wrestler with a black belt in BJJ and Gaidojutsu, Cerrone closes range well with those leg kicks and usually gets the fight where he wants it. A tough fighter who never backs down from the competition, Cerrone’s work rate and willingness to take on whomever is why he’s one of the more popular fighters in the sport. However, Cerrone needs to win a fight at some point to prove there’s something left in the tank. This will be Cerrone’s 15th career fight in Nevada.

This should be a fun fight and rematch from UFC Fight Night 45 eight years ago. Cerrone won with a second round knockout, becoming the first person to knockout Miller, and Dan Hooker is the only other guy to do so in his career. I understand why Miller would be the favorite here based on his recent run, the way Cerrone has looked recently and this being a quick turn around for Cowboy considering he was scheduled to fight at UFC on ESPN 37. I get it. However, the bottom line is both of these guys are up there in age and nothing surprises us at this point. We should see some standing and banging with Cerrone’s solid takedown defense.

I’ll take a stab with Cerrone in the upset.