UFC 276: Max Holloway vs Alexander Volkanovski Picks, Predictions, Odds

Alexander Volkanovski and Max Holloway fight Saturday in UFC 276 at T-Mobile Arena. Volkanovski enters this fight with a 24-1 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by knockout. Holloway enters this fight with a 23-6 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by decision.

Volkanovski has won his last 21 fights and is coming off an April win over Chan Sung Jung. Volkanovski is averaging 6.63 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Volkanovski is averaging 1.95 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Volkanovski is coming off a knockout win at UFC 273 where he landed 152 total strikes and 64 percent of his significant strikes. The bout earned performance of the night honors, and he’s successfully defended his belt three times. Volkanovski still hasn’t lost a fight in over nine years, which was his fourth fight of his career. A really strong fighter with extreme pop in his hands and a boxing background, Volkanovski has some of the better standup striking in the sport and counters very well. Volkanovski is also an effective takedown artist with a strong upper body and a wrestling background. Volkanovski has a black belt in BJJ, and he defends takedowns at a very high level, so he’s going to force his opponent to fight the fight he wants and that gives him a great deal of confidence. This will be Volkanovski’s third career fight in Nevada.

Holloway has split his last 6 fights and is coming off a November win over Yair Rodríguez. Holloway is averaging 7.38 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Holloway is averaging 0.31 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 66 percent. Holloway is coming off a decision win at UFC Fight Night 197 where he landed 251 total strikes and produced 3 takedowns. Holloway has put together back-to-back decision wins, bouts that earned fight of the night honors. Holloway now looks to win 3 straight fights for the first time since 2017-18. Holloway is one of the most well conditioned fighters in the sport who is usually effective throughout five rounds and gets stronger the fight goes. Holloway hides his shots well and has a wide variety of attacks in his tool box, as he can be a bit unpredictable and throws kicks or elbows out of nowhere. One of the best strikers in the history of the sport and a brown belt in BJJ, there’s nothing left for Holloway to prove at 30 years old. This will be Holloway’s eighth career fight in Nevada.

Holloway and the plus money is always intriguing because of his resume and knowing what he’s capable of. However, we can’t ignore that Volkanovski comfortably won both meetings against Holloway, and he’s done nothing over the last decade to bet against. Volkanovski is the thicker fighter with the bigger build, and he’s the more balanced fighter when you throw in his ground game. Volkanovski is also the more accurate striker, even if Holloway is more creative and lands at a higher volume.

I wouldn’t be shocked if Holloway finds a way to an upset, but I have to side with Volkanovski.