UFC 276: Sean O’Malley vs Pedro Munhoz Picks, Predictions, Odds

Pedro Munhoz and Sean O’Malley fight Saturday in UFC 276 at T-Mobile Arena. Munhoz enters this fight with a 19-7 record and has won 42 percent of his fights by submission. O’Malley enters this fight with a 15-1 record and has won 73 percent of his fights by knockout.

Munhoz has split his last 8 fights and is coming off a December loss to Dominick Cruz. Munhoz is averaging 5.50 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Munhoz is averaging 0.57 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 20 percent. Munhoz is coming off a decision loss at UFC 269 where he landed 79 total strikes and 43 percent of his significant strikes. The bout earned fight of the night honors, which he’s earned in 3 of his last 4 bouts. Each of Munhoz’s last 5 fights have gone the distance, and he hopes to avoid 3 straight losses for the first time in his career. Munhoz is an aggressive volume striker who does his best work on his feet, and he uses a lot of his strikes to set up his takedowns. Munhoz comes from a kickboxing background and is a black belt in BJJ. He controls the octagon very well with his movement and doesn’t need much to find a submission hold. Six of Munhoz’s 8 submission victories have come by the guillotine choke. Munhoz has also never been finished in his career, with all 7 losses coming by decision. This will be Munhoz’s 10th career fight in Nevada.

O’Malley’s has won 3 straight fights and is coming off a December win over Raulian Paiva. O’Malley is averaging 8.26 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 62 percent. O’Malley is averaging 0.59 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. O’Malley is coming off a knockout win at UFC 269 that earned performance of the night honors. O’Malley has produced knockouts in each of his last 5 victories. O’Malley is a lengthy athlete with a kickboxing background and is an unpredictable highlight reel. O’Malley will throw anything at any moment, and he has some of the cleanest boxing in the sport. With his creativity, length and power, few are going to be able to stand up with O’Malley in this division. A brown belt in BJJ, O’Malley also has a deep background in grappling, so he’s far from this standup striker who is only comfortable landing bombs. At 27 years old, O’Malley is becoming one of the biggest names on the roster and is a must-watch whenever on a card. This will be O’Malley’s 10th career fight in Nevada.

This should be a fun fight between two primarily strikers, but O’Malley has a clear advantage across the board. Not only is O’Malley’s boxing more polished, but he has a 5-inch height advantage and a 7-inch reach advantage. With the creativity and angles O’Malley has in his tool box, this is simply a tough matchup for the smaller Munhoz. O’Malley has some of the cleanest striking of anybody in the UFC, and I like his chances against most strikers. 

Give me O’Malley by knockout to shave down the juice.