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UFC 286 Pick – Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Prediction & Odds

Rafael Fiziev vs Justin Gaethje
March 18, 2023 5:00 pm EDT
The Line: Justin Gaethje +200 / Rafael Fiziev -240
(Get latest betting odds)

Justin Gaethje and Rafael Fiziev face off on Saturday in a lightweight bout for the co-main event of UFC 286 at the 02 Arena in London. Gaethje is ranked 3rd in the division, while Fiziev is ranked 6th in the division. 

Justin Gaethje vs Rafael Fiziev Odds

Justin Gaethje is the underdog sitting at +200 while Rafael Fiziev is the favorite sitting at -240 odds. 

Justin Gaethje Betting Preview

Justin Gaethje comes into this fight with a 23-4 record overall, but he has lost two of his last three fights. Gaethje’s last fight came against Charles Oliveria in May 2022 it was in the first round that he got into a bad position and was finished by a rear naked choke. He was outstruck 30-21 and ended up getting finished. Gaethje is averaging 7.46 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 7.85 significant strikes per minute. He wants to keep the fight on the feet and is averaging 0.00 takedowns every 15 minutes. He is also averaging 75 percent of his opponent’s takedown attempts. 

Rafael Fiziev Betting Preview

On the other side of this matchup is Rafael Fiziev who sits with a 12-1 record overall, and he has won six fights in a row. Fiziev’s last fight came against Rafael Dos Anjos in July 2022, and it was early in the fifth round that he finished the fight by knockout. Fiziev had outstruck Dos Anjos 64-54, but he was taken down twice in that fight. Fiziev is averaging 4.81 significant strikes per minute while absorbing 4.86 significant strikes per minute He is averaging 0.36 takedowns every 15 minutes, and he is successful on 40 percent of his takedown attempts. He also stops 92 percent of his takedown attempts. 

Shane’s Free Pick

Fiziev is an elite kicker, and Gaethje is going to struggle here. Gaethje is going to take a ton of damage to his legs from the kicks, and he is going to really struggle here. Fiziev is going to keep this fight on the feet, and he’s going to wear down Gaethje doing it. Gaethje is going to have no answer, and Fiziev is going to get the job done here. Back Fiziev to get the job done by decision. 

Shane Mickle's Free Pick: Rafael Fiziev by Decision

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Shane Mickle

Sports is about all Shane knows in this life! He has a passion for sports and writing, which makes working for Sportschatplace a perfect job for him! If you find him cheering for a team it's usually a Minnesota team, or the Kansas Jayhawks!

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