UFC Fight Night 202: Wellington Turman vs Misha Cirkunov Picks, Predictions, Odds

Misha Cirkunov and Wellington Turman fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 202 at the UFC Apex. Cirkunov enters this fight with a 15-7 record and has won 53 percent of his fights by submission. Turman enters this fight with a 17-5 record and has won 41 percent of his fights by submission.

Cirkunov has split his last 10 fights and is coming off an October loss to Krzysztof Jotko. Cirkunov is averaging 3.77 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 49 percent. Cirkunov is averaging 4.48 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Cirkunov is coming off a split decision loss in his middleweight debut at UFC Fight Night 193. You could make an argument Cirkunov should have won the fight with his five takedowns. Cirkunov hopes to avoid three straight losses for the first time and hopes to snag his first win since UFC Fight Night 158. Cirkunov is a 35-year-old from the Soviet Union and is a black belt in BJJ with a background in judo and wrestling. Cirkunov has been a takedown machine at the UFC level, and he has eight career submissions. Ten of his 22 fights overall have ended in submission. Cirkunov is a good athlete with a strong overhand and will mix in a kick, but he’s most comfortable when he can get his hands on his opponent. Each of Cirkunov’s last 10 victories have been finishes. Cirkunov has had only three career decisions. This will be Cirkunov’s fifth career fight in Nevada.

Turman has won nine of his last 13 fights and is coming off an August win over Sam Alvey. He is averaging 3.04 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Turman is averaging 2.22 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 22 percent. Turman is coming off a split decision win at UFC on ESPN 30 despite being deducted points due to eye pokes. In the win, Turman landed 114 total strikes and 55 percent of his significant strikes. Turman is an intriguing 25-year-old with a deep background in BJJ and has finished 11 of his 17 victories. The Prodigy has strong takedown ability and has seven career submission wins. Four of those seven submissions came by rear-naked choke. Turman has never been submitted in his career. Turman has some knockout pop and can hold his own on his feet, but he’s most effective on the ground and with his takedown game. This will be Turman’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

You could make a case for either fighter here, and Turman has the higher upside given his youth and his striking power edge. However, Cirkunov is the safer bet here, as his takedown ability is far more polished, and he usually gets the fight where he wants it. Cirkunov also has a five-inch reach advantage and has been a little more accurate with his shots under the UFC banner. 

Close fight, but give me Cirkunov for the win.