UFC Fight Night 204: Dan Hooker vs Arnold Allen Picks, Predictions, Odds

Arnold Allen and Dan Hooker fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 204 at The O2 Arena. Allen enters this fight with a 17-1 record and has won 47 percent of his fights by decision. Hooker enters this fight with a 21-11 record and has won 48 percent of his fights by knockout.

Allen has won each of his last 10 fights and is coming off an April win over Sodiq Yusuff. Allen is averaging 2.96 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Allen is averaging 1.44 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Allen is coming off a decision win at UFC on ABC 2 where he landed 26 total strikes and produced two takedowns. Allen is now 8-0 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost a fight since CWFC 69 nearly eight years ago. Allen has seen each of his last four fights end in decisions. Allen is a balanced fighter with a background in kickboxing and wrestling, and he’s a purple belt in BJJ. Allen has some underrated pop in his strikes, and all four of his submission victories have come by different techniques. This will be Allen’s 12th career fight in England.

Hooker has split his last eight fights and is coming off an October loss to Islam Makhachev. Hooker is averaging 4.90 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 47 percent. Hooker is averaging 0.90 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 36 percent. Hooker is coming off a submission loss at UFC 267 where he landed 19 total strikes. Hooker has been on the losing side in three of his last four fights. Hooker has become one of the more exciting fighters due to the way the bouts end, and he’s one of the best volume strikers in the lightweight division overall. Hooker is most successful on his feet, and his length can be very tough for opponents. With a kickboxing background, it’s no secret where Hooker is most comfortable, but he also has seven submission wins to his name and is slippery in the clinch, so he’s far from a one-trick pony and can more than hold his own on the canvas. Hooker has three career wins via the guillotine choke. This will be Hooker’s first career fight in England.

There’s a lot of reason to like Allen here, as he’s been the more consistent fighter who hasn’t lost in forever, he has the better ground game, and he’ll be the home favorite in England. However, Hooker is kind of due for a bounce back performance, and he has a considerable edge on the feet with his striking power and accuracy. Oddsmakers also favoring Hooker, who has been on the struggle bus lately, should tell you something.

Give me Hooker.