UFC Fight Night 205: Alexa Grasso vs Joanne Wood Picks, Predictions, Odds

Joanne Wood and Alexa Grasso fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 205 at the Nationwide Arena. Wood enters this fight with a 15-7 record and has won 60 percent of her fights by decision. Grasso enters this fight with a 13-3 record and has won 69 percent of her fights by decision. 

Wood has split her last eight fights and is coming off a November loss to Taila Santos. Wood is averaging 6.67 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Wood is averaging 1.57 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Wood is coming off a submission loss at UFC on ESPN+ 56 where she landed 30 total strikes and ate 36 total strikes. Wood has now lost back to back fights and looks for her first win since her UFC 257 bout against Jessica Eye. Four of Wood’s seven losses have ended in submissions. Wood has a deep background in Muay Thai and kickboxing, and she’s a purple belt in BJJ. Wood is at her best on her feet, where she can unleash powerful leg kicks and control the distance in the octagon. She is also a proven grappler with a decent takedown defense, and she has an impressive gas tank that’s helped her win nine of her 12 career decisions. This will be Wood’s second career fight in Ohio.

Grasso has won three of her last four fights and is coming off a February (2021) win over Maycee Barber. Grasso is averaging 4.96 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Grasso is averaging 0.28 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 40 percent. Grasso is coming off a win at UFC 258 where she landed 95 total strikes and 46 percent of her significant strikes. Grasso now looks to win three straight fights for the first time since 2015-16. Grasso is a standup striker at heart with a boxing background, terrific accuracy, technique and toughness. Grasso does a great job of standing in the middle of the octagon and trading with her opponent. Grasso has four career knockouts and has never been knocked out herself. From a pure boxing standpoint, Grasso is up there as one of the best on the women’s side. The challenge for Grasso is to tap into the other areas of her game and improve in the clinch and on the canvas. A purple belt in BJJ, we’ve seen Grasso struggle in the past in the clinch, and her takedown defense could also improve. This will be Grasso’s first career fight in Ohio.

Wood could give Grasso issues if this fight goes to the canvas, and she is the slightly bigger fighter here. However, I’ve had a soft spot for Grasso over the years as she has quality boxing and her fighting style is fun to watch. Grasso is in good form at the moment, and she’s had plenty of time to prepare for an opponent. Wood has been shaky as of late, and she could struggle with the work rate of Grasso.

Give me Grasso in a decision.