UFC Fight Night 205: Amanda Lemos vs Jessica Andrade Picks, Predictions, Odds

Jessica Andrade and Amanda Lemos fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 205 at the UFC Apex. Andrade enters this fight with a 22-9 record and has won 41 percent of her fights by knockout. Lemos enters this fight with a 11-1 record and has won 64 percent of her fights by knockout.

Andrade has split her last six fights and is coming off a September win over Cynthia Calvillo. Andrade is averaging 6.24 significant strikes per minute with an accuracy percentage of 50 percent. Andrade is averaging 2.90 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 55 percent. Andrade is coming off a knockout win at UFC 266 where she landed 48 total strikes and 55 percent of her significant strikes. Andrade has seen each of her last four wins end in knockout, and she looks for back-to-back wins for the first time since 2018-19. Andrade is a pressure fighter who usually gets the best of her opponent on her feet with constant wild punches and a lot of pop behind her strikes. Andrade is violent standing up and has a great ground and pound, and while she’s known for her striking, she’s also a successful takedown artist with seven submission victories on her resume. A black belt in BJJ, Andrade has the upper body strength to get a fight wherever she wants, and her aggressiveness and brute power makes her one of the scarier fighters on the women’s side. This will be Andrade’s third career fight in Nevada.

Lemos has won each of her last five fights and is coming off a December win over Angela Hill. Lemos is averaging 5.35 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 58 percent. Lemos is averaging 1.31 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 57 percent. Lemos is coming off a split decision win at UFC Vegas 45 where she landed 68 total strikes and 43 percent of her significant strikes. The bout earned fight of the night honors. Lemos is now 5-1 under the UFC banner and hasn’t lost since UFC Fight Night 113 which was nearly five years ago. Lemos has completely turned her career around since her suspension, as she switched to strawweight and has become far more dominant. Lemos is able to use her size and strength to her advantage in this weight class, and her cardio has held up better as well. Lemos is a power striker who started her career with four straight knockouts, and you could argue she’s the scariest power striker in this class. At 34 years old, Lemos has completely changed the way many view her over these last couple years. This will be Lemos’ fifth career fight in Nevada.

Andrade is getting the benefit of the doubt from oddsmakers and bettors because of her reputation and name. Andrade has been one of the scary, physical fighters on the women’s side you’re not thrilled to bet against. However, Lemos has a chance to be in that same category, and she’s certainly proved she can rise to the occasion. Lemos is the bigger fighter of the two, and she has a chance to do what Andrade is used to doing to others. There’s a lot of value with Lemos and the plus money here.

I’m calling an upset.