UFC Fight Night 211: Francisco Trinaldo vs Randy Brown Picks, Predictions, Odds

Randy Brown and Francisco Trinaldo fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 211 at the UFC Apex. Brown enters this fight with a 15-4 record and has won 40 percent of his fights by knockout. Trinaldo enters this fight with a 28-8 record and has won 50 percent of his fights by decision.

Brown has won 5 of his last 6 fights and is coming off a May win over Khaos Williams. Brown is averaging 4.42 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 48 percent. Brown is averaging 0.76 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Brown is coming off a decision win at UFC 274 where he landed 103 total strikes and 52 percent of his significant strikes. Brown now looks for 4 straight wins since he started his career with a 7-0 record, and he’s now 4-1 in career decisions. Brown comes from a boxing background and does his best work on his feet, where he has 6 career knockouts and has proven to be an accurate striker. However, Brown is also a brown belt in BJJ and has 5 career submission victories. At 32 years old, Rude Boy has become a balanced fighter and is enjoying his best stretch in the UFC since joining in January 2016. This will be Brown’s third career fight in Nevada.

Trinaldo has won 5 of his last 6 fights and is coming off a Mary win over Danny Roberts. Trinaldo is averaging 3.15 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 44 percent. Trinaldo is averaging 0.98 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 43 percent. Trinaldo is coming off a decision win at UFC 274 where he landed 91 total strikes and 64 percent of his significant strikes. Trinaldo has seen 6 of his last 7 bouts go the distance, and he’s won 14 of his 19 career decisions. Trinaldo is known for his striking ability and punching power along with his background in kickboxing, but a lot of that pop has faded now that he’s 44 years old. Trinaldo is still highly effective standing up, as he delivers accurate strikes and is a black belt in kickboxing. Trinaldo is a brown belt in BJJ and has 5 submission victories. Trinaldo has never been knocked out in his career. This will be Trinaldo’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

Trinaldo is a grizzly vet who continues to prove there’s something left in the tank, but at some point being in his mid 40s is going to catch up to him, especially against these younger fighters. Brown is the younger, more athletic and stronger power puncher of the two, and he has an 8-inch reach advantage. While Trinaldo knows how to use his legs to keep his distance, and he’s never been slept in the octagon, this is a dangerous fight for the Brazilian. I don’t like this matchup for Massaranduba. 

Give me Brown by knockout.