UFC Fight Night 211: Yan Xiaonan vs Mackenzie Dern Picks, Predictions, Odds

Mackenzie Dern and Yan Xiaonan fight Saturday in UFC Fight Night 211 at the UFC Apex. Dern enters this fight with an 12-2 record and has won 58 percent of her fights by submission. Xiaonan enters this fight with a 15-3 record and has won 53 percent of her fights by decision.

Dern has won 6 of her last 8 fights and is coming off an April win over Tecia Torres. Dern is averaging 3.16 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 35 percent. Dern is averaging 0.46 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 9 percent. Dern is coming off a decision win at UFC 273 where she landed 58 total strikes and ate 78 total strikes. It was a split decision victory, and Dern has now won 5 of her 7 career decisions. She’s now 7-2 under the UFC banner. Dern is a black belt in BJJ and has possibly the most decorated background in submission wrestling, and she’s won countless medals in various events. Dern is deadly when she can dictate the pace of the fight and get things on the canvas. The daughter of Wellington Dias, Dern was born into a grappling and judo family, and her scrambling ability is as good as it gets. Dern has seen all 14 of her fights end in submission or decision. This will be Dern’s seventh career fight in Nevada.

Xiaonan has won 6 of her last 8 fights and is coming off a March loss to Marina Rodriguez. Xiaonan is averaging 5.66 significant strikes per minute, with an accuracy percentage of 42 percent. Xiaonan is averaging 1.06 takedowns with an accuracy percentage of 66 percent. Xiaonan is coming off a decision loss at UFC 272 where she landed 66 total strikes and produced 2 takedowns. A controversial split decision, Xiaonan now hopes to avoid 3 straight losses for the first time in her career. Xiaonan is 6-2 under the UFC banner and is 8-1 in career decisions. Xiaonan has a background in BJJ and Sanda, so she’s a very comfortable standup striker who has 7 career knockouts and will mix in some leg kicks with her power punches. Xiaonan has improved her takedown ability over the years, has shown above-average takedown defense, but she’s never won a fight by submission. Xiaonan is hard to hit on the feet and usually controls things in the clinch, where she’s become much more confident with taking a fight to the ground. This will be Xiaonan’s fourth career fight in Nevada.

This is a difficult fight for Xiaonan, given that she’s not as comfortable on the ground as her opponent. Despite her takedown success, Xiaonan doesn’t typically keep fights on the canvas, and she’s never won a fight on the ground. Dern is likely going to drag Xiaonan into deep waters and control this fight, as there’s a serious gap between the two in wrestling and scrambling. 

I’ll take Dern to win inside distance to shave down the ML price.